Oxygen, a fundamental element sustaining life on Earth, is expected to experience a drastic decline, according to a study published in Nature in 2021. Although this transformation is projected to occur a billion years in the future, scientists anticipate a swift shift that will take the planet back to conditions resembling those before the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) around 2.4 billion years ago.
The study, gaining renewed attention as scientists explore habitable planets beyond our solar system, suggests that atmospheric oxygen might not be a permanent feature of habitable worlds in general. The anticipated drop in oxygen levels is extreme, estimated to be around a million times less than current levels, according to Chris Reinhard from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
The research models the scenario when Earth’s atmosphere undergoes significant deoxygenation, resembling conditions reminiscent of the Archaean Earth. The predicted deoxygenation is expected to precede the onset of moist greenhouse conditions in Earth’s climate system and the extensive loss of surface water from the atmosphere.
To arrive at these conclusions, researchers created detailed models of Earth’s atmosphere, analyzing changes in the Sun’s brightness and the subsequent decrease in carbon dioxide levels. The reduction in carbon dioxide implies fewer photosynthesizing organisms, such as plants, leading to a decline in oxygen production.
While this billion-year timeline may seem distant, scientists emphasize the importance of understanding the long-term dynamics of Earth’s atmosphere, contributing valuable insights into the potential habitability of exoplanets in the search for life beyond our solar system.
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