The recent observations from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NOAA) suggest a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Despite indications of El Niño persisting, the intensity has notably diminished since its peak in March 2024. Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have shown a gradual cooling trend, with negative sub-surface anomalies extending westward.
Key indicators like the Nino 3.4 index, which reflects sea surface temperature anomalies, are steadily declining and are projected to reach the threshold for ENSO-neutral conditions within the next few weeks. Additionally, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains within the ENSO-neutral range, indicating a shift towards neutral conditions.
In contrast to El Niño’s influence, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern is also being monitored. While currently in a positive phase, IOD values are expected to stabilize by May, offering insights into its potential impact on regional climate patterns.
Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key atmospheric phenomenon, has weakened, contributing to reduced tropical cyclone activity globally. Weak MJO activity is forecasted to persist in the coming weeks, limiting the likelihood of tropical cyclones over the Indian seas.
Looking ahead, the transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions is anticipated to be complete by mid-May. However, the onset of a full-fledged La Niña event is not expected until the third or fourth week of July. La Niña typically peaks in the fall and gradually weakens in early winter of the following year.
As researchers continue to monitor these climatic patterns, their impact on global weather systems, including the potential implications for tropical cyclone activity and regional climate variability, will be closely observed.
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