December 17, 2023, A new study published in the journal Nature Communications has raised climate change alarms about the increasing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Third Pole region, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountain ranges. Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences have highlighted the vulnerability of this ecologically crucial area to the impacts of climate change.
The research indicates that the expansion of glacial lakes and the emergence of new ones in the Third Pole region are likely to result in a higher frequency of GLOFs in the coming years. This calls for the development of improved analytical methods and datasets to anticipate and mitigate potential disasters associated with these events.
The Third Pole, home to over 10,000 glaciers, has witnessed significant glacial retreat over the past three decades due to rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns. This retreat has led to the formation of numerous glacial lakes, which, though seemingly benign, pose a severe risk of GLOFs. These catastrophic events can occur when factors such as glacier collapse, snow avalanches, landslides, or the rupture of natural dams trigger the rapid release of vast volumes of water.
The study, based on satellite imagery from the Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B missions between 2018 and 2022, identified and classified glacial lakes, revealing a troubling trend of continuous expansion. Unlike previous studies, the researchers discovered an increase in GLOF occurrences from an average of 1.5 events annually during 1981–1990 to 2.7 events during 2011–2020.
The researchers also assessed the susceptibility to GLOFs in 5,535 glacial lakes, identifying 1,499 with a high potential for outburst floods. The potential impact is significant, with approximately 55,808 buildings, 105 existing or planned hydropower projects, 194 square kilometers of farmland, 5,005 kilometers of roads, and 4,038 bridges at risk. It is estimated that around 190,000 lives are directly exposed within the GLOF paths based on regional population distribution data.
Associate Professor Weicai Wang from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research emphasized the urgent need for action, stating, “Approximately 55,808 buildings, 105 existing or planned hydropower projects, 194 square kilometers of farmland, 5,005 kilometers of roads, and 4,038 bridges are threatened by the potential GLOFs.” He added that the research should lead to improved risk management strategies and increased cooperation between countries in the Third Pole to address this growing environmental challenge.
