With more than 1000,000 Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, and the ever-escalating war of words between the US-led West and Russia over Ukraine, one major world player has spoken up firmly in support of Russia. And that is China.
Recently, Beijing called for ease of tensions on both sides and to end the Cold War mentality. Meanwhile, it also made it clear that it completely supports Moscow’s concerns. China supporting Russia may seem obvious as it is a former Communist comrade (a Federal Republic now) and the two nations are longtime allies.
China and Russia become the world savior
Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister recently called Russia’s security concerns legitimate and said that they should be taken seriously and properly addressed. The Chinese ambassador to the UN, Zhang Jun, went a bit further on Monday and said straight forward that China disagrees with the US claims that Russia was threatening international peace. He went on to criticize the US for calling a meeting of the UN Security Council on the issue. He compared the US move as the megaphone diplomacy that was not conducive for negotiations.
China’s official statement on the Ukrainian crisis has been cautious, stopping short of actual support for Russia using military force against Ukraine. At the same time, the Chinese State Media outlets covering the crisis have been blunt. At a time when China is witnessing a wave of anti-West sentiments running high, the current Ukraine crisis is being seen as yet another example of the West’s failures.
From the Chinese State Media perspective, the US-led NATO is acting as the bully and is refusing to respect the sovereign right of other countries, particularly Russia and China, to defend their territories. The Global Times said in a report in its newspaper that the ever-closer relationship and bond between China and Russia is the last line of defence that protects the world order, while another report by Xinhua, the state news agency criticized that the United States was attempting to divert its domestic attention and to revive its influence over Europe.
Jessica Brandt, the Policy Director at Brookings Institution notes that some of this diction has been propagated in multiple languages on Twitter, with a malicious attempt to shape how the US and NATO are seen by the rest of the world. She said to the BBC that the goal is to undermine the soft power of the United States, to tarnish the credibility and appeal of the liberal institutions, and to discredit the open media. She further added that this is an example of how Beijing regularly amplifies Kremlin talking points on Ukraine when it suits its interests.
Common Goals, Common Enemy
Some experts have pointed out that China and Russia have come pretty close recently, perhaps closer than they were in the days of Stalin and Mao. The 2014 Crimea annexation crisis was noted as pushing Russia further into the arms of China when China offered Moscow economic and diplomatic support amid international isolation. The relationship between the two has blossomed even further thereon. China has remained Russia’s biggest trade partner for years, with bilateral trade hitting a new high of $147 billion (£108 billion) just the last year. Last year the two countries jointly signed a roadmap for closer military ties and also joined hands-on stepping up joint military exercises.
On Friday, Vladimir Putin reached Beijing to attend the Winter Olympics opening ceremony, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders will hold a closely monitored meeting, which makes Mr Vladimir Putin the first leader of a world power to meet Mr Xi Jinping in person, in the last two years. The Chinese leader has constantly refused to travel abroad and has met very few foreigners since the beginning of the pandemic.
It is worth noting that, for the past few years, both countries are having particularly tense relationships with the West, especially with the United States. Beijing and Moscow see a common interest in pushing back against the United States and Europe and winning bigger stage presence for themselves in the international political arena, says assistant professor of International History at Tufts University, Chris Miller.
In the present Ukrainian crisis, in the event of an escalated conflict, Western sanctions will be imposed on Russia. Experts believe that in such a situation, China will come to Russia’s economic aid, in the same way as it had before. This could possibly include providing alternative payment systems, loans for Russian banks and firms, more purchases of Russian gas and oil, or even outright rejection of US export controls.
Bonnie Glaser, the Director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund, points out that China is currently seeking to stabilize its strained relations with the United States. If Beijing lents any stronger support to Moscow, that could potentially create more tensions between China and the United States, thus stressing a clearer democracy versus autocracy divide.
Beijing is most likely hedging its bets in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, as it is cautious of Moscow’s true intentions. Moreover, giving any stronger support to Russia may anger the European Union, which is China’s second-largest trading partner. As a result, China may feel the heat of the European backlash. On the sidelines of the Ukraine crisis, a concern has cropped up that this could possibly take the form of support for Taiwan.
China is not Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine
The world is closely watching the Ukraine conflict as a potential test of US support and loyalty to its allies. Many are speculating if the US would intervene militarily in case Russia invades Ukraine, as it can be a potential pointer to how the US would react if the same situation confronts Taiwan and China someday attempts to reclaim it. Taiwan sees itself as an independent country and counts the United States as its biggest ally.
The question of whether the US would go to war with China over Taiwan is a legitimate concern, as the US-China rivalry has heated up recently, and as Taiwan has reported regular incursions by Chinese warplanes in its self-declared air defence zone. The US has not been clear on what it would actually do in case of an armed invasion of Taiwan by China. The US is bound to help Taiwan defend itself, but at the same time, Washington diplomatically acknowledges Beijing’s One China policy, the position that dictates that there is only one Chinese government.
However, experts dismiss such parallels, pointing out that the two situations, namely Taiwan and Ukraine, are governed by completely different geopolitical concerns. The US has far deeper ties with Taiwan compared to Ukraine. It sees Taiwan as an anchor of the US ideological, diplomatic and military strategy in Asia. The US has far more at stake with Taiwan than with Ukraine.
