The depression over the central Bay of Bengal, reported at 0830 hours IST on 24th May 2024, has moved northeastwards. It is currently centered near latitude 15.5° N and longitude 88.7° E, approximately 730 km south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh, and 750 km south of Canning, West Bengal. This system is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by the morning of 25th May and further strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm by the night of 25th May. It is projected to move northwards, crossing between Sagar Island (India) and Khepupara (Bangladesh) around midnight on 26th May as a severe cyclonic storm.
Heavy Rainfall Predictions
Significant rainfall is anticipated across various regions due to the depression:
West Bengal: Coastal districts are expected to receive light to moderate rainfall with heavy to very heavy downpours at isolated places on 26th and 27th May, and extremely heavy rainfall on 26th May.
North Coastal Odisha: Heavy rainfall is likely on 25th and 26th May.
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected on 27th and 28th May.
Northeastern States: Mizoram, Tripura, South Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland will likely see heavy to very heavy rainfall on 26th May, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall on 27th and 28th May.
Andaman Islands: Heavy to very heavy rainfall on 24th May, and heavy rainfall in the northern parts on 25th May.
Wind Warnings
Adverse wind conditions are predicted:
•Bay of Bengal: Squally winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over the central and south Bay of Bengal on 24th May, increasing to 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph by evening.
•North Bay of Bengal: Wind speeds escalating to 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph on 25th May, and 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph on 26th May, potentially reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph along the Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts by evening.
•Northeastern States: Squally winds of 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Mizoram and Tripura, and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over South Assam and Meghalaya on 27th May.
Storm Surge and Sea Conditions
•Storm Surge: A surge of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of coastal West Bengal, with 1.0-1.5 meters expected over Bangladesh at the time of landfall.
•Sea Conditions: Rough to very rough over the central and south Bay of Bengal on 24th May, becoming high over the central Bay of Bengal on 25th and 26th May, and high to very high over the north Bay of Bengal from 25th May evening until 27th May morning. The coasts of Bangladesh, West Bengal, and North Odisha will experience rough to very rough sea conditions from 25th May evening, escalating to high to very high from 26th May morning onwards.
Damage and Precautionary Measures
•Potential Damage: Major damage to thatched houses, huts, vulnerable structures, banana and papaya trees, power and communication lines, paddy crops, horticultural crops, and orchards is anticipated in South and North 24 Parganas districts of West Bengal. There is also a risk of tree branches breaking, uprooting of trees, and inundation of low-lying areas leading to localized flooding and traffic disruptions.
•Precautionary Actions: Total suspension of fishing operations, regulation of surface transport and shipping, and ensuring coastal residents seek safer places are advised. People in affected areas should remain indoors, avoid water-logged areas, and avoid staying in vulnerable structures.
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