The year 2023 is projected to be the warmest on record, with a 99% likelihood of the average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average, according to data from Berkeley Earth, a non-profit organization specializing in land temperature data analysis. This forecast marks a significant change from the beginning of the year when the chances of record temperatures were estimated at only 14%.
The latest update from Berkeley Earth, published on December 19, stated that it is “virtually certain” that the average temperature through 2023 will surpass the 1.5°C threshold, making it the warmest year since measurements began. The report highlighted the impact of recent unexpected warmth and a strong El Niño, leading to the revised forecast.
A record-breaking November, with temperatures 1.77°C above the 1850-1900 average, contributed to the heightened probability of 2023 being the warmest year. The report emphasized that the past six months consecutively set new records for monthly average temperatures, indicating a persistent warming trend.
While a single year surpassing the 1.5°C threshold does not automatically mean the long-term goal under the Paris Agreement has been exceeded, it underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The report warned that without substantial emissions reductions, the long-term average is likely to surpass 1.5°C during the 2030s.
The statement also acknowledged that the El Niño observed in 2023 may have a more significant warming effect on global mean temperatures in the following year, as the second year of an El Niño typically tends to be warmer than the first.
This unprecedented warming trend highlights the need for immediate action to curb emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change, underscoring the importance of meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
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