Tourism and tourism businesses most affected by COVID-19 were declared as epidemic on 12 March 2020 (WHO, 2020). As a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, job losses in the tourism and tourism industry are estimated to be 100.08 million worldwide. The epidemic affects not only economically but also politically and socially. As the number of cases infected by the virus increases across the country, and through the implementation of specific measures and campaigns such as social reduction, community closure, domestic work, homelessness, forced isolation or isolation, reducing congestion, etc., pressure is designed to stop the tourism industry.
These changes in the current system have led to the onset of the economic downturn and depression, a quest for social change. According to Liu et al. (2019), a highly dynamic sector in the tourism industry that benefits many other sectors such as accommodation, food, transportation, retail, entertainment, etc. contributing to global economic growth and stability. It has been reported that tourism growth has surpassed the global GDP growth record from the previous consecutive year. In addition, it is estimated that there is a 78% decrease in international tourist arrivals, resulting in a loss of US $ 1.2 trillion in foreign exchange and representing a significant reduction in tourism activity, almost seven times the impact of the 9/11 (UNWTO) incident. 2020). In addition, declining tourist demand has led to serious financial problems.
India is one of the developing countries known for its unique culture, customs and hospitality. It is a major destination for many international tourists, creates many job opportunities and imposes huge taxes.
The Indian tourism industry can be divided into three main categories, such as:
- International tourism;
- Domestic tourism; and
- Foreign tourism.
The Indian tourism industry has created an estimated 87.5 million jobs, with 12.75% of total jobs, thus contributing INR 194 billion to India’s GDP. In addition, the sector has recorded growth of 3.2% since 2018, when 10.8 million foreign tourists arrive in India with an exchange revenue of USD 29.9 billion in 2019. In this regard, India is ranked 8th in terms of direct travel and contribution to tourism about USD 108 billion (FICCI, 2020). Also, there is a 66.4% decrease in the arrival of overseas tourists in India in March 2020 compared to last year. It is estimated that there will be about 40 million direct and indirect job losses in India, with an annual loss of revenue estimated at USD 17 billion in India reports by FICCI, 2020; Skrola, 2020).
Tourism is a major source of income and employment in many countries. Generator rental, salary, tax collection and foreign exchange earnings. The tourism industry was highly competitive; therefore, accurate prediction of the need for tourism is essential to making the right strategic and operational decision. Strategic decisions include opening up attractions, transportation, accommodation, and tourism marketing that require significant investment.
In contrast, employment decisions are the number of parking spaces, attendants, number of transit buses, working hours per day, and staffing. Accurate prediction of the need for tourism is a daunting task. Predicting the need for tourism helps to identify future patterns that guide policy planning and development. Predictability plays an important role in tourism planning (Cho, 2001). In addition, accurate forecasting helps managers and employees make informed decisions in policy making, human resource use and management, resource management, pricing strategies, etc. during disruption to reduce risk and uncertainty.
Therefore, tourism forecasting is one of the most important areas of research. Tourism is a highly affected sector and can remain unaffected for a long time, which means more than 1.5 years. Therefore, in this case, it is necessary to measure the losses due to the epidemic so that the policies can be restructured to manage tourism activities. The influx of foreign tourists decreased by 68% from February to March 2020 and as a result decreased foreign exchange earnings (FEE) by 66.32%, which has a significant impact on the economy.
READ ALSO : Health Focus: The “yoga”: practice of happy life and how it helps in decreasing the disease
