IMD said “After the interaction between a western disturbance and monsoon winds led to extreme rains and flooding over northern India in the past fortnight, another active phase of the southwest monsoon is expected to begin this week”.
Met office said “low pressure area has formed over North Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand which is expected to bring heavy and widespread rainfall over central and adjoining East India in the next five days”.
Expert says “Next week we can expect an active monsoon over central India. Although El Nino conditions, which usually dampen monsoon rainfall, occurred earlier this month”.
Distribution of monsoon rainfall has been extremely skewed since 1 June, with no overall deficit but a 49% surplus in northwest India; 19% deficiency over eastern and northeastern India; 22% deficiency over Peninsular India and 1% excess over Central India.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 15 continue to record rainfall deficits (-59% to -20%); 10 normal (-19% to 19%); five surpluses (20% to 59%) and six large surpluses (60% or more). The monsoon delayed over Kerala on 8 June, but conditions were weak for two weeks as extremely strong Cyclone Biparjoy withdrew all convection and moisture. June ended with a 10% lack of precipitation.
The Western Disturbance is seen as a cyclonic circulation of upper air over northern Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. Another cyclonic circulation is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal around July 18.
“The low pressure area is expected to interact with the cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and bring rainfall to the west coast, especially east Rajasthan, Gujarat to Vidarbha. There is also a Western Disturbance over North Pakistan which is likely to interact with these systems resulting in good rainfall over Punjab, Delhi, Haryana and also hill parts.
The meteorological agency’s statement came as Himachal Pradesh, parts of north Punjab, Haryana and Delhi experienced unprecedented rainfall and Himachal Pradesh saw massive damage to bridges, highways and other infrastructure last week.
“The exceptional warmth in June and early July occurred at the start of the development of El Niño, which is expected to further promote warmth both on land and in the oceans and lead to more extreme temperatures and heat waves at sea,” Christopher Hewitt, director of climate of WMO services, he said in a statement. “We are in uncharted territory and we can expect more records to be broken as El Niño continues to develop and these impacts extend into 2024. This is worrying news for the planet.”
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