In a study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers predict that up to 92% of Earth’s land could become uninhabitable for mammals in approximately 250 million years due to the formation of a new supercontinent, Pangaea Ultima. This next supercontinent is expected to form at the equator as the Atlantic Ocean shrinks, and a merged Afro-Eurasian continent crashes into the Americas.
The study, conducted by Alexander Farnsworth and his colleagues at the University of Bristol, UK, uses climate modeling to foresee that much of Pangaea Ultima will experience temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F), rendering it inhospitable for most mammalian life. This extreme heating is a result of volcanic activity driven by the merging and drifting apart of continents, releasing substantial amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
The central regions of the supercontinent, far from the oceans, will transform into deserts that can support only very specialized mammals. The arid conditions will also reduce the amount of silica washed into the oceans, hampering the natural removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.
Increased solar radiation, predicted due to the Sun becoming 2.5% more luminous as it consumes more hydrogen fuel and shrinks its core, will contribute to further heating.
In a worst-case scenario with CO2 levels reaching 1,120 parts per million (double the current levels), only 8% of the planet’s surface – primarily coastal and polar regions – would remain habitable for most mammalian life, compared to the current 66%.
Farnsworth suggests that this grim scenario could result in a mass extinction, potentially affecting plant life and other species. However, he also notes the possibility of adaptation if humans still exist, resembling the environment in Frank Herbert’s science-fiction novel Dune. Nonetheless, the long-term consequences of such drastic changes remain uncertain.
The study does not consider human-induced carbon emissions and focuses solely on long-term climate modeling. Some scientists believe that life, in some form, will endure through these changes, but it remains a challenging future for the planet.
The formation of Pangaea Ultima is part of Earth’s ongoing supercontinent cycle, with the last supercontinent, Pangaea, having broken apart around 200 million years ago.
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Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03005-6
