Rising global temperatures are projected to have a significant impact on alpine glaciers across the world, potentially causing a reduction in their coverage by over one-fifth within this century. This change could expose vast stretches of land to the open atmosphere, a phenomenon not witnessed for thousands of years. Recent research suggests that this transformation, while posing challenges, also presents opportunities for conservation efforts as glaciers melting.
Currently, alpine glaciers outside of Antarctica and Greenland cover approximately 650,000 square kilometers. These glaciers play a crucial role in supplying water to nearly 2 billion people during the summer months, while also supporting ecosystems on a global scale. The gradual retreat of these glaciers has served as visible evidence of the alarming consequences of global warming.
Scientists conducted simulations to model the fate of these glaciers and the landscapes they would leave behind, factoring in scenarios with both low and high greenhouse gas emissions. The findings, published in Nature, indicate that even under the most optimistic projections, an area twice the size of Ireland could become exposed by the end of the century. In scenarios with high emissions, the exposed area more than doubles, with regions such as Alaska and the high mountains of Asia being particularly impacted.
Jean-Baptiste Bosson, the lead author of the study and a glaciologist affiliated with the Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie (ASTERS) in Annecy, France, emphasizes the potential magnitude of this ecosystem transformation. He highlights that it could rank among the most significant shifts our planet has experienced.
According to Bosson and his team, approximately 78% of the newly exposed terrain would be on land, with around 14% occurring in marine areas and 8% in freshwater regions. Interestingly, these newly revealed areas could host crucial habitats in need of protection. Plant colonization in these regions could lead to increased carbon storage, offering a valuable counterbalance to deforestation in other parts of the world. Moreover, these areas could offer refuges for animals currently facing threats from climate change at lower elevations.
This study is seen as valuable guidance for scientists studying the migration of microorganisms, plants, and animals into these newly available spaces. Additionally, it could assist governments in preparing for land management challenges, as only a fraction of the glacial regions analyzed are currently within protected areas.
However, the study underscores the need for a fusion of global analyses and detailed ecological studies to establish a baseline for tracking the evolution of these emerging habitats. Francesco Ficetola, a zoologist from the University of Milan, emphasizes that this integration will offer a more accurate prediction of the changes occurring in each deglaciated area.
For Bosson, this research serves as another reminder of the urgency in addressing greenhouse gas emissions. He stresses that while it’s possible to save a significant portion of the current ice by the end of the century, proactive measures are imperative. The fate of glaciers, he emphasizes, is at a pivotal crossroads, demanding immediate action.
Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02564-y
