HomeEnvironmentIndia Receives Hopeful Monsoon Forecast Amidst El Nino Concerns

India Receives Hopeful Monsoon Forecast Amidst El Nino Concerns

India, which has been grappling with the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon since June 2023, has received encouraging news from the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center.

In its global prediction for the April-September period of 2024, the APEC Climate Center has forecast above-normal rainfall for India during the South-West monsoon, which commences on June 1. This prediction brings relief as India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) sources anticipate rainfall to be over 100 per cent of the long period average.

The APEC Climate Center highlighted enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation in various regions, including eastern Africa, the western Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. This forecast indicates potential relief for India, which has experienced 45% rainfall deficiency since the emergence of El Nino, leading to droughts and dry spells.

Although the APEC Climate Center has forecasted above-normal South-West monsoon, detailed month-wise precipitation indications are yet to be issued by the IMD. However, the forecast brings hope for regions spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, including India and the Bay of Bengal.

The APEC Climate Center’s ENSO alert suggested a “La Nina Watch,” indicating a transition towards La Nina conditions, which typically bring heavy rains and floods to Asia, including India.

Additionally, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an 83% chance of transitioning from El Nino to ENSO-neutral conditions by April-June 2024. Furthermore, there is a 62% chance of La Nina developing in June-August 2024.

The recent forecasts offer hope for Indian agriculture, which has been adversely affected by El Nino, resulting in a 1.4% decrease in crop output during the kharif and rabi seasons of July 2023-June 2024 compared to the previous year.

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