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Disaster Focus: Water resources on the earth to become less predictable due to rapid climate change

Water resources will become increasingly volatile and difficult to predict in snow-dominated regions throughout the Northern Hemisphere by the end of this century, according to a comprehensive new climate change study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The research team found that even in regions that receive about the same amount of rainfall, the flow will become more variable and unpredictable. As the snowpack recedes in a warmer future and fails to provide reliable runoff, the amount and timing of water resources will increasingly depend on periodic episodes of rain.

“Water managers will be at the whim of individual precipitation instead of having four to six months to predict snowmelt and runoff,” said NCAR scientist Will Wieder, lead author. “Water management systems in snow-dominated areas are based on the predictability of snowpack and runoff, and much of that predictability could disappear with climate change.”Observations show that snow cover is melting earlier and even decreasing in many regions. That decline will be so significant by the end of the century that the amount of water contained in the snowpack at the end of an average winter in parts of the U.S. Rockies could drop by nearly 80 percent, the researchers found.

The study warns that changes in runoff and flow are likely to have cascading effects on ecosystems that depend on reliable snow water. While the changes will not be uniform across regions, more snow-free days and longer growing seasons will strain water resources, dry out soil in many areas, and increase the risk of wildfires.The study assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate (a scenario known as SSP3-7.0). Wieder said the most severe impacts on snowpack, water runoff and ecosystems would likely be avoided if the company successfully reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

The researchers drew on an advanced suite of computer simulations to flesh out the future of water resources and show how changes in temperature and precipitation will alter snow accumulation and runoff patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Although past research has looked at the effects of climate change on water availability, the new study focuses on the increasing variability of water resources.

Race with predictability

Many areas of the Earth rely on snow accumulation during the winter and subsequent melting in the spring and summer to regulate runoff and flow. But for years, scientists have warned that the snowpack will thin and melt earlier because more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow in the colder months, and because melting sometimes occurs during the winter instead of the spring runoff period.

To see how reduced snowpack will affect water resource variability, Wieder and his coauthors turned to a powerful NCAR-based climate model: the Community Earth System Model, version 2. They drew on a recently created database of simulations, known as the CESM2 Large Ensemble, to compare past period (1940-1969) with the future period (2070-2099). The simulations were run on the Aleph supercomputer at the Institute for Basic Science supercomputer in Busan, South Korea.

The results illuminate the extent to which large-scale shifts in the timing and extent of water flows will occur across most of the world by 2100. The Northern Hemisphere will see an average of 45 more snow-free days per year, assuming high greenhouse gases. emissions. The greatest increase will occur in the mid-latitudes, which are relatively warm, and in the high-latitude marine regions, which are affected by changes in sea ice.Many of the regions most reliant on predictable snowpack-runoff relationships will experience the greatest loss of predictability due to a sharp decline in reliable spring runoff pulses. These regions include the Rocky Mountains, the Canadian Arctic, eastern North America, and eastern Europe. The authors warn that this will significantly complicate the management of freshwater resources, both for society and for ecosystems.

“We are in a predictability race when it comes to streamflow as we strive to improve our forecasts with better data, models and physical understanding, but these efforts are being undone by the rapid disappearance of our best predictor: snow.” said Flavio Lehner, professor of earth and atmospheric science at Cornell University and co-author of the study. “It may be a race to lose, but we’re trying to win it, so we have to study these topics.”

Although the reduced runoff will lead to drier summer soil conditions over much of the Northern Hemisphere, simulations have shown that some areas—including East Asia, the Himalayas, and northwestern North America—will retain soil moisture due to increased precipitation.”Snow-related metrics are critical to informing society about managing scarce water resources,” said Keith Musselman, a hydrologist at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of the study. “As utilities and public works agencies plan new reservoirs and other infrastructure to adapt to a changing climate, we need to address fundamental research questions about the changing characteristics of winter snowpack and the resulting streamflow that we have long relied on.”

Source Journal Reference: William R. Wieder, Daniel Kennedy, Flavio Lehner, Keith N. Musselman, Keith B. Rodgers, Nan Rosenbloom, Isla R. Simpson, Ryohei Yamaguchi. Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate changeProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022; 119 (30) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2202393119

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