Climate Change to Transform Rainfall Patterns in Indo-Gangetic Plains, Warns Study

In a significant revelation, a study conducted by the Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research has shed light on the impending ecological transformation facing the vast Indo-Gangetic plains. This fertile expanse, stretching across India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, is on the cusp of experiencing profound changes in its rainfall patterns due to climate change.
The Indo-Gangetic plains, an agriculturally intensive region, covering over 700,000 square kilometers, is home to millions of people and major cities such as Delhi, Kolkata, Dhaka, and Karachi. The study’s findings are raising concerns about the region’s future.
The comprehensive analysis predicts a disconcerting future: during the period of 2041-2060, the mean monsoon rainfall in June and July may plummet by 40-70% compared to the 1986-2005 average. Additionally, the research foresees remarkable alterations in pre- and post-monsoon rainfall.
The pre-monsoon season (March to May) might see a 10-20% reduction in rainfall, while the post-monsoon season (October to December) is expected to witness a staggering increase, with an 80-170% surge anticipated by 2080-2099.
The climate-induced changes are also expected to significantly affect rainfall intensity. Moderate and heavy rainfall events might decrease, while very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall categories are set to increase. These transformations will impact the region’s immediate and distant future.
One key driver behind these shifts is the strengthening temperature gradient and increased atmospheric moisture content, which are supporting intensified rainfall extremes across the Indo-Gangetic Plains.
Elaborating on this, Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, noted that the rising temperatures on land and sea have increased the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture, influencing the intensity of monsoon rains. For example, the warming of the Arabian Sea has infused more moisture over northern and northwestern India, which, in turn, results in increased rainfall and extreme weather events.
As the Indo-Gangetic region, known for its critical role in agriculture and a high population density, confronts these anticipated rainfall changes, it must adapt to secure its future food and water resources. The challenge now is to mitigate and address the intensifying impacts of climate change, a task that demands global attention and collaboration.
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