In a significant environmental milestone, Germany experienced a remarkable reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2023, reaching levels not seen since the 1950s. This achievement is primarily attributed to a decrease in coal-fired power usage and a scaled-down output by energy-intensive industries, according to a recent study by the Berlin-based Agora Energiewende think tank. However, the study cautions that this decline is unsustainable without crucial changes in climate policies.
Germany, known for its ambitious climate goals, aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990, with an overarching objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045.
Key findings from the study reveal that CO2 emissions in Germany for the year 2023 reached 673 million tonnes, marking the lowest levels since the 1950s and surpassing the government’s 2023 climate goal of 722 million tonnes. The reduction is attributed to a surge in domestic renewable energy production, accounting for over 50%, and an increase in imported electricity. Notably, coal-fired electricity production witnessed a substantial decline, reaching its lowest level since the 1960s and contributing to 44 million tonnes of CO2 savings.
While Germany is on track to phase out coal by 2038, Economy Minister Robert Habeck has advocated for an earlier exit by 2030, a stance already agreed upon in western German states but facing resistance in the eastern brown coal belt.
In the industrial sector, emissions met government targets, experiencing a 12% year-on-year decline at 144 million tonnes. However, the study warns that this reduction might be offset this year with the sector’s anticipated recovery. Energy-intensive manufacturers had curtailed production last year due to rising gas prices in Europe, following a shift from Russian piped gas supply to liquefied natural gas imports after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the overall positive trend, the transport and buildings sectors, historically falling short of government emissions targets, missed their 2023 goals. Buildings emitted 109 million tonnes of CO2, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year but surpassing Germany’s target of 101 million tonnes. In the transport sector, CO2 emissions fell by 2% to 145 million tonnes, missing the 133 million tonnes goal.
The study emphasizes the need for implementing a bill introduced last year to encourage green energy and communal heating to bring the buildings sector back on track for its 2030 target. Additionally, it suggests tax subsidy reforms and an expansion of public transport to achieve the transportation sector’s goals.
Meeting the 2030 CO2 targets will require government financing, which has become tighter following a constitutional court ruling last year that canceled around 60 billion euros of unused debt earmarked for climate projects. The study recommends a strategic mix of instruments to maximize climate protection for every euro from the state treasury.
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