China is likely to see the peak of the Covid-19 wave at around 65 million infections a week by the end of June, according to a senior health adviser, as health authorities rush to boost their vaccine arsenal to target the latest micron variants.
XBB has fueled a resurgence of cases in China since late April and is expected to result in 40 million infections a week by the end of May before peaking at 65 million a month later, local media site. Respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan at a biotechnology conference in the southern city of Guangzhou.
His estimate provides a rare glimpse into how the much-anticipated second wave may play out, with immunity among the country’s 1.4 billion people declining nearly six months after Beijing abruptly dismantled Covid Zero curbs as the coronavirus spread.
After moving to live with the virus, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention stopped updating its weekly statistics earlier this month, leaving a question mark over the impact of Covid.
An estimate of 65 million cases from disease modeling suggests the recovery is likely to be more subdued compared to the previous wave that erupted late last year and in January.
Back then, another omicron subspecies was likely infecting 37 million people every day, sending residents scrambling for limited supplies of fever medicine, overwhelming hospitals and leaving crematoria across the country with piles of bodies.
China is also preparing to introduce new vaccines that will target XBB. The country’s drug regulator has already pre-approved two, and another three or four “will be released soon,” Zhong said. “We can lead the pack internationally in developing more effective vaccines.”
The batch of XBB-specific vaccines will also add to the growing number of domestic immunizations Beijing has signed off on during the pandemic, and is in line with a World Health Organization expert panel’s recommendation last week to abandon the use of the original Wuhan strain in future shots. WestVac Biopharma, a vaccine developer based in the western Chinese city of Chengdu, also began human testing of its XBB-based injections last week.
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