The second cyclone of the post-monsoon season is likely to form over the southwest Bay of Bengal and hit the east coast in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh on Thursday, the India Meteorological Department predicted on Monday. A depression has formed over the South Andaman Sea. It is likely to move west-northwestward and become a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal by December 6 evening.
It is likely to continue moving west-northwestward, intensify further into cyclonic storm Mandous and reach southwest Bay of Bengal near north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh by December 8 morning. “We haven’t given a landfall forecast yet. The models will give a clearer picture tomorrow,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the meteorological office. Most places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands are likely to see rain on Monday and Tuesday.
Dry weather is also likely with wind speeds reaching 40-45 km/h with gusts up to 55 km/h. “A cyclone is likely to form, but it may weaken before it reaches the coast,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster. “But coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh will receive heavy showers on December 7 and 8. It is a fast moving weather system.” Rain will begin over the north coast of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from midnight on December 7 and is likely to intensify on December 8 and 9, the weather office said.
South Andhra Pradesh will experience rain from midnight on 7th December which will intensify on 8th and 9th December. Wind speeds could reach 55-65 km/h with gusts up to 75 km/h on December 7, with gusts reaching 70-80 km/h with gusts up to 90 km/h likely on December 8. Gusty winds of 40-50 km/h to 60 km/h are likely along and off the coast of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Sri Lanka from 8 December, intensifying from 8 December evening to 9 December at 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h in the morning.
By the evening of December 9th, it is likely to decrease from 45-55 km/h in gusts to 65 km/h. Seas are expected to be very rough over large areas of the Bay of Bengal between December 6 and 8. Sea conditions are likely to be rough along the coast of South Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Sri Lanka on December 7-9 and above on December 8.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea on December 5 and 6; southeast Bay of Bengal from 5 to 7 December; southwest Bay of Bengal from 6 to 9 December; along and off the coast of Sri Lanka from 6 to 9 December; along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Gulf of Mannar from 7th to 9th December.
A weak western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from December 7. Under its influence, isolated light to moderate rainfall is likely to occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh on December 8. The minimum temperature is likely to drop by 2-3 degrees Celsius over Maharashtra in the next three days and then increase by 2-3 degrees. The minimum temperatures are not likely to change significantly in the northern parts of the country in the next 4-5 days. Dense fog likely in isolated pockets over Himachal Pradesh in the morning and over Punjab and Haryana in the next 24 hours.
