This summer in the UK is expected to be hotter than usual, although temperatures are not yet expected to surpass last year’s record highs.
According to climate scientists from the Met Office and the bloc’s Earth observation agency Copernicus, early signs suggest that the UK and across southern Europe are likely to experience warmer than average temperatures for the rest of the month and into early July. But it is hard to predict whether Britain will see another day when the mercury crosses the 40C (104F) mark, as it did last July.
“You can never rule it out,” said Craig Snell, a meteorologist at the Met Office. “All we can say at this stage is that there is probably a decent chance that temperatures will be around average or above by the end of August.” Read more 2022: Britain suffers record heat in European summer of woe
Britain baked in scorching heat last July, with London temperatures reaching an unprecedented 40.2C and igniting fires across the city. London has been without rain for more than three weeks – an unusually long dry spell for the capital – and Britain’s Health Safety Agency issued a heat warning for parts of the country at the weekend.
The highest temperatures in the UK are usually reached around the end of July and reliable forecasts are only available for a few weeks ahead. Temperatures of up to 30C expected this weekend are above average but not unprecedented or particularly unusual for June, Snell said.
High degree of certainty
Scientists know with a high degree of certainty that this will be a warmer than average summer. The Met Office gives just a 5% chance of a cool summer and double the usual chance of a hot summer.
Global warming means warmer is the new normal, says Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading. And the UK is warming at around one-and-a-half times faster than the global average. “We’re getting warmer averages, warmer nights and warmer days,” Hawkins said. “We don’t notice these changes from summer to summer or day to day, but we do notice them when there’s a big heat wave.”
It’s a similar picture for southern Europe, including Spain and Italy. Warm temperatures look more likely than cooler or average weather, according to predictions from Copernicus. Forecasters predicted the same forecast last year at this time, but with more certainty. The first signs in 2022 that scorching heat is on the way come from a very dry spring in Britain and Europe, Snell said.
Still, there is no doubt that unusually dry and hot conditions are occurring more frequently. According to the European Drought Observatory, 37% of Europe is under drought warnings or alerts, especially in Spain and Portugal. While southern Europe has seen heavy rains recently, Copernicus forecasts suggest that there will not be enough rainfall to offset the drought completely.
Heavy rain that falls on dry ground is also more likely to run off than soak in. Read more: Rising temperatures trigger Europe’s first summer heatwave warnings Britain will also experience wet weather this weekend, which could lead to flash flooding. The Met Office made the announcement in a weather warning issued for Saturday. “It’s looking like a warm summer, but also maybe a bit of a stormy summer,” Snell said.
Hot weather causes health problems as well as transport and energy infrastructure problems. The UK’s Health Safety Agency issued an updated “heat health” warning on Thursday, warning of “significant impacts” over the weekend, including indoor overheating, dangerous temperatures in hospitals and care homes and increased deaths. Elderly and vulnerable people are particularly at risk, but younger people can also be affected, the alert said.
The UK government’s heat warning system has been updated this year in the wake of last year’s sweltering summer to focus more on health impacts. Heat deaths linked to climate change are expected to cost the economy £6.4 billion a year this decade, government models suggest. Almost 3,000 more deaths were recorded during heatwaves last year – the most in a single year on record.
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