A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning that the world is on track for a temperature rise of approximately 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, even if countries fully implement their nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions.
Titled “Broken Record,” the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2023 reveals that global emissions rose by 1.2% in 2021-2022. The report emphasizes the need for countries to cut emissions by 28% to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and by 42% to meet the more ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. The report was released ahead of the 28th session of the annual UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai.
Under the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to hold the increase in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius and strive for efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the report underscores the considerable gap between current emission reduction efforts and the goals set in the agreement.
The report acknowledges progress since the signing of the Paris Agreement but highlights that the world remains far from limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The impacts of climate change are already evident, with unprecedented heatwaves, floods, wildfires, cyclones, and droughts occurring at just 1.1 degrees of global warming.
Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, emphasized the need to address the root cause of the climate crisis by transitioning away from fossil fuels toward a just and equitable shift to renewable energy.
The report calls for a global commitment to low-carbon development transformations, particularly in energy transition. It points out that the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be exceeded more than three-and-a-half times by the coal, oil, and gas extraction planned globally.
Developed countries, having already consumed more than 80% of the global carbon budget, are urged to take more ambitious and rapid action while providing financial and technical support to developing nations. The report emphasizes the need for low- and middle-income countries to prioritize low-emissions growth to meet development needs.
Harjeet Singh of the Climate Action Network International warned of the severe consequences if emissions from fossil fuel extraction continue on their current trajectory, stressing the urgency of transformative actions to address climate change.
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