Washington/Dubai: Recent satellite imagery has revealed significant expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities. These expansions, assessed by American researchers, suggest an effort to boost missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials. This development follows an October 2022 agreement in which Iran agreed to supply missiles to Russia for its war against Ukraine. Iran also provides missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, both part of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to U.S. officials.
Commercial satellite firm Planet Labs captured images of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April. The images show over 30 new buildings at both sites, located near Tehran, surrounded by large dirt berms. These earthworks are typical of missile production facilities, designed to contain blasts and prevent the spread of explosions, explained Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, according to Lewis, who based his analysis on the satellite images. Iran’s missile arsenal, already the largest in the Middle East with over 3,000 missiles, includes models capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads.
Three anonymous Iranian officials confirmed that the expansions at Modarres and Khojir aim to enhance the production of conventional ballistic missiles. One official mentioned that the new buildings would also double drone manufacturing capacity, with drones and missile components to be sold to Russia and provided to the Houthis and Hezbollah.
While Reuters could not independently verify the Iranian officials’ statements, the Iranian mission to the United Nations did not respond to requests for comment. Tehran has previously denied supplying drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis, and Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam claimed that Iran’s increased weapons production would not impact Yemen, as the Houthis develop and manufacture their own aircraft.
Lewis and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank, analyzed the satellite imagery as part of a Middlebury project monitoring Iranian missile infrastructure. Lewis noted that Russia is seeking low-cost missile capabilities and has approached Iran and North Korea, though Moscow and Pyongyang deny missile transfers.
The researchers were uncertain what types of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which appeared to be under construction. Any increase in Iran’s missile or drone production is concerning for the U.S., which has stated that Iranian drones support Russia’s assault on Ukrainian cities, and for Israel, facing threats from Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence and a U.S. National Security Council spokesperson declined to comment on the researchers’ analysis. However, the U.S. has implemented measures, including sanctions, to limit Iranian missile and drone production and exports.
In February, Reuters reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, a claim Iran denied. Washington could not confirm the transfers but suspected Tehran’s intent to provide missiles to Moscow.
Shahid Modarres and Khojir, overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are central to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. The IRGC, answering directly to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, controls large segments of the Iranian economy. The complexes have been associated with developing and producing Iran’s short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the space program.
Construction at Shahid Modarres resumed after a massive 2011 explosion, which killed 17 IRGC officers, including Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, considered the “architect” of Iran’s ballistic missile program. The second Iranian official noted that construction accelerated last year.
Lewis suggested that prior to the 2011 explosion, the Iranians may have avoided building berms to avoid drawing attention. “They learned the hard way,” he said. The numerous dirt berms at the sites support the assessment that Iran is expanding ballistic missile production.
“When we see an entire production line bermed like that, it’s usually missiles,” said Eveleth.
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