The world is on the brink of an alarming climate milestone as a key US government agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warns that there’s a staggering 95% likelihood that 2023 will either be the hottest or second-hottest year ever recorded. This unsettling revelation is coupled with a grim forecast that the scorching trend could persist well into 2024, primarily driven by the robust El Niño weather pattern that shows no signs of waning.
During the period spanning January to August, global land and ocean temperatures soared to 1.06°C above the base period of 1991 to 2020, establishing it as the second-warmest January-to-August interval in recorded history.
Karin Gleason, the Monitoring Section Chief at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, emphasized, “Nobody knows when this is going to end, but El Niño is still strengthening. As a result of that, we expect heat to continue for the rest of 2023 with a 95% chance of this being the warmest or second warmest year on record. It’s possible that 2024 could be even warmer than 2023. We anticipate being in this record category globally for several months to come.”
El Niño, characterized by periodic but anomalous warming of equatorial Pacific waters, carries far-reaching implications worldwide, including a potential impact on India’s monsoon rains. This phenomenon is predicted to persist through the upcoming winter, with a 95% likelihood of continuation into January to March 2024 and a roughly 70% probability of a potent El Niño presence in the November-December-January period.
Regarding the pivotal threshold of a 1.5°C average warming breach, Gleason explained, “We don’t really deal with predictions as to how far it will go, but we know it has been warm and has been exceeding previous margins significantly in the last couple of months. We are reaching certain months that are exceeding 1°C. We are watching that closely.”
In August, global land and ocean temperatures soared to a staggering 1.25°C above the 1991 to 2020 base period, marking the warmest point in 174 years. Notably, global land temperatures alone reached an unprecedented 1.72°C above the same base period. Furthermore, both June and August registered as the hottest months since 1850, with land temperatures alone surging to 1.51°C above the 1991-2020 base period.
The concerning trend is further exacerbated by above-average sea surface temperatures spanning the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The current observations indicate El Niño conditions, with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures standing at 1.6°C above normal—an alarming indicator of a potential strong event on the horizon.
This record-breaking heatwave comes at a critical juncture in global efforts to curb warming and achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a stark warning, asserting that the world is heading toward a perilous 2.8°C of warming if immediate action is not taken.
However, despite the urgency of the climate crisis, some major emitters, including the United States, China, the UK, and India, were notably absent from the recent UN Climate Ambition Summit. Nevertheless, voices for change resonated from various corners of the world, demanding action on fossil fuels and a transition to cleaner energy sources.
The urgency of the climate crisis underscores the pressing need for concerted global action, as nations grapple with the increasingly dire consequences of rising temperatures and extreme weather events. As 2023 teeters on the precipice of record-breaking heat, the world watches, with both trepidation and hope, as the fate of our planet hangs in the balance.
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