In recent decades, India has witnessed an alarming increase in extreme hydroclimate events, driven by global warming, leading to devastating floods, casualties, and economic losses. To address this growing concern and prepare for the future, a team of researchers, led by Professor R. K. Mall of Banaras Hindu University’s Department of Science & Technology-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, embarked on a study.
Their research, supported under the Climate Change Program of the Department of Science & Technology (DST), sought to examine the future hydroclimate extremes and pinpoint regions most susceptible to these challenges across Indian River Basins (IRBs).
The study utilized high-resolution simulated precipitation data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) experiments, providing valuable insights into India’s hydroclimate future. The findings are particularly significant for policy interventions, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies.
Identifying New Hotspot Regions for Urban Flooding
One of the key takeaways from the research is the projection of an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall over the Western Ghats and Northeast river basins. Additionally, an escalation in heavy rainfall intensity, estimated at 14.3%, is expected over the Upper Ganga and Indus basins. This information sheds light on potential hotspot regions for future urban flooding due to these changing rainfall patterns across various Indian River Basins.
Impact on Agriculture and Society
The study underscores the profound impact of hydroclimate extremes on agriculture, health, and socio-economic conditions. Notably, it identifies an agricultural drought in the lower Ganga basin, primarily driven by a decrease in mean rainfall. This raises the urgency for policymakers to develop strategies that can address both water surpluses and scarcities.
The research foresees a 4% to 10% increase in heavy rainfall over the western Indian River basins, with more significant changes in the mid-future, under certain carbon emission scenarios. The West flowing River Kutch & Saurashtra, including Luni, Indus, and Upper Ganga River Basins, may experience a substantial increase of approximately 30% in daily precipitation.
These findings highlight the urgency for action, especially in regions with highly populated cities, to design climate adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to each river basin. Such strategies should encompass water management, emergency services, and other policies aimed at minimizing risks associated with extreme hydroclimate events.
This research offers a vital glimpse into India’s hydroclimate future, emphasizing the need for proactive and region-specific measures to address the impending challenges. By understanding the vulnerabilities and hotspots within Indian River Basins, policymakers, researchers, and communities can work together to build resilience and safeguard the well-being of society in the face of changing hydroclimate extremes.
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