Cyclone Mocha, forming over the Bay of Bengal, may intensify into a very strong storm by Friday, with wind speeds of up to 130 km/h, the India Meteorological Department warned on Monday, adding that details of its landfall could be available on Tuesday.
A low pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining south Andaman Sea on Monday, the meteorological office said. It is likely to intensify into a depression on May 9 and Cyclone Mocha on May 10. The storm is expected to move towards the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar around May 12.
Small sea vessels and fishermen have been warned not to venture out from Tuesday. The Met department has also asked the authorities to regulate tourism, offshore activities and shipping near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 8 and 12.
An atmospheric trough to cyclonic circulation associated with a low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea was extending from southwest Bay of Bengal off north coast of Tamil Nadu, the meteorological office said in its bulletin. A western disturbance like cyclonic circulation also lies over northern Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir in mid-tropospheric levels.
“The land time (and) expected intensity as it moves towards the coast will be available when the low pressure area strengthens into a depression,” said M Mohapatra, director general of the Met office. “We have issued a subjective statement for now, but details will be available once the models provide a clearer picture over the five-day forecast period.”
“Both the oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Bay of Bengal are favorable for the development of cyclones. Ocean surface temperatures are anomalously high by 1-2 degrees Celsius and the subsurface heat is also sufficient to provide a steady supply of heat and moisture for cyclone formation and intensification,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climatologist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Pune.
“We have predictions of a very strong cyclone. We should be alert and be prepared for a potential intensification of the cyclone,” said Koll.
Rainfall is expected to increase in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Stormy weather is likely over Southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on Tuesday with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph. Stormy conditions are likely to continue until at least May 11.
Seas are likely to be very rough in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea from May 10 till the end of the week. Waves could reach heights of up to 6 to 14 meters, the Met office said.
The thermal potential that provides the cyclone’s energy is optimal over the southern Andaman Sea and the adjacent southeastern and central Bay of Bengal. The sea surface temperature over the Bay of Bengal is around 30 to 32 degrees, which is favorable for cyclonic formation, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center said.
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