Cyclone Biparjoy the year’s first storm in the Arabian Sea, has rapidly intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm, with forecasters predicting a “moderate” onset of the monsoon over Kerala and a “weak” advance over the southern peninsula under its influence.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday morning said conditions are favorable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala within two days. However, meteorologists said the cyclone is affecting the intensity of the monsoon and the onset over Kerala will be “moderate”.
The MeT office said that the very severe cyclonic storm will further intensify and move northwards during the next three days. IMD does not yet foresee any major impact on countries bordering the Arabian Sea, including India, Oman, Iran and Pakistan.
Forecasters say the system’s tentative track will be northward, but storms occasionally contradict the predicted track and intensity.
Forecast agencies said the storm was undergoing “rapid intensification”, escalating from a mere cyclonic circulation to a very strong cyclonic storm in just 48 hours, defying earlier forecasts.
Cyclone Biparjoy : Atmospheric conditions
Atmospheric conditions and cloud mass indicate that the system is likely to withstand the force of a very strong cyclone until June 12.
Cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are rapidly intensifying and maintaining their intensity for longer periods due to climate change, scientists say.
According to the study “Changing status of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean”, the frequency, duration and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea increased by about 20 percent in the post-monsoon period and 40 percent in the pre-monsoon period.
The number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea increased by 52 percent, while very strong cyclones increased by 150 percent.
“The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is closely linked to rising ocean temperatures and increased moisture availability due to global warming.” The Arabian Sea used to be cold, but now it is a warm pool,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climatologist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
“Oceans have already warmed due to climate change. In fact, a recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed by almost 1.2 degrees Celsius since March, so conditions are very favorable for the system (Cyclone Bipajoy) to rapidly intensify, so it has the potential to sustain strength for a longer period. period,” said Raghu Murtugudde, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (climate and meteorology), Skymet Weather, said cloud mass is concentrated around this system and not enough moisture is reaching the Kerala coast. Although the criteria for the onset of monsoon may be met in the next two days, it will not be a stormy start.
After setting in over Kerala, the monsoon will remain “weak” until the storm degenerates around June 12, he said.
“A strong weather system in the Arabian Sea may spoil the progress of the monsoon deep inland.” Under their influence, the monsoon current may reach the coastal parts but will try to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats,” Skymet Weather said on Tuesday.
Cyclonic storm and a low pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal
A senior IMD scientist said the southern peninsula will get rain under the influence of a cyclonic storm and a low pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal. However, the further advance of the monsoon beyond the southern peninsula will occur after the cyclone degenerates.
“It would not be a case of a classic onset of the monsoon, meeting all the given criteria. We would have scattered showers along the west coast belt, but no inland penetration and widespread rain,” Koll said.
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