As the Rajya Sabha biennial election looms large in Uttar Pradesh, fissures within political factions, particularly the Opposition INDIA bloc, have come to the fore, injecting an air of uncertainty into the electoral landscape just a day before legislators cast their votes to elect 10 MPs on Tuesday.
With 10 Rajya Sabha seats up for grabs and 11 candidates vying for victory, the BJP has put forth eight nominees, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) has fielded three contenders. On the surface, the BJP and SP appear poised to secure seven and two seats, respectively, based on declared positions. However, reports of eight SP MLAs skipping a crucial dinner and meeting hosted by party chief Akhilesh Yadav have added fuel to the fire, intensifying speculation about potential defections or internal discord within the party ranks.
As both camps engage in last-minute lobbying through what’s been dubbed as “dinner politics,” the BJP seems to be standing on solid ground, exuding confidence in its electoral arithmetic.
The Rajya Sabha election employs a system of proportional representation via single transferable vote, prompting political parties to strategically allocate votes to their candidates to secure the requisite quota for victory. Amidst the political maneuvering, dinner gatherings have become battlegrounds for securing support and enticing cross-voting from rival factions, despite the actual voting being conducted through open ballot.
The electoral math further adds intrigue to the contest. With three vacancies and 399 MLAs in the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly (three of whom are incarcerated), the effective voting strength stands at 396. Calculating the required winning quota per seat at 3601, each party must ensure the support of at least 37 MLAs to clinch victory, even though surplus votes may come into play during subsequent preference counts.
While the BJP faces a shortfall of nine MLAs and the SP lacks three, based on initial projections, the actual number required for victory may be lower depending on voter turnout and potential abstentions.
Nevertheless, the possibility of defections or crossovers adds an element of unpredictability to the election outcome. The camp that manages to maintain cohesion within its ranks, likely the BJP, stands poised to secure the 10th and final seat, underscoring the high stakes and strategic maneuvering characterizing Uttar Pradesh’s Rajya Sabha election.
