A researcher at the Laboratory of Statistical Biophysics at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland has now come up with another explanation for the radio silence, inspired by the humble fungus. “We’ve only been looking for 60 years,” says biophysicist Claudio Grimaldi. “Earth could simply be in a bubble that happens to lack the radio waves emitted by alien life.”
In short, there’s just too much space to scan, and most likely not enough extraterrestrial transmissions crossing our path. This is based on a statistical model previously used to study porous materials such as sponges – only instead of pores in the material, it was deployed to assess the distribution of extraterrestrial signal emitters that may or may not be out there somewhere in space.
The message is to remain patient. Scientist Scanning for traces of communication in space takes time, effort and money, and there is some debate as to whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is worth it.
The scientist model starts with the assumption that there is at least one electromagnetic signal of technological origin in the Milky Way at any given time, and that the Earth has been in a silent bubble (or sponge pore) for at least six decades, if not longer.
If this is the case, then statistically there are less than 1 to 5 electromagnetic emissions per century anywhere in our galaxy. In other words, they’re about as common as supernovae in the Milky Way—so they’re not very common at all.
Under the most optimistic scenario, with the conditions outlined above, Grimaldi says it could take at least 60 years before we get a hit on an alien transmission. In the least optimistic scenario, we’re looking at a wait of over 2,000 years. In both cases, we would need to have the radio telescope pointed in the right direction.
“We may have been unlucky in that we discovered how to use radio telescopes just as we were passing through a part of space where the electromagnetic signals of other civilizations were missing,” says Grimaldi.
“This hypothesis seems less extreme to me than the assumption that we are constantly bombarded with signals from all sides, but for some reason we are unable to detect them.”
As the tools we use to peer into space keep getting better and better, we’re discovering more and more planets that could have the right conditions for life on them—and that means a better chance that extraterrestrial life is trying to take over. in contact.
However, we still have a lot of room to search, which is why modeling is so important to figure out where to look. For example, if an extraterrestrial civilization has developed, it may be clustered around a group of planets and not evenly spread out, as the analysis in this study assumed.
Grimaldi suggests that the best way forward is a commensal investigation: so looking for signals in data collected by telescopes that are aimed at other missions, rather than using telescopes specifically to look for extraterrestrial communication.
“The best strategy might be to take the SETI community’s earlier approach of using data from other astrophysical studies—the detection of radio emissions from other stars or galaxies—to see if they contain any technosignals and make that a standard practice,” says Grimaldi.
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