There is almost a 70% chance this monsoon will develop into an El Nino, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, raising fears that the weather phenomenon could threaten agriculture, consumption and the economy, which is still considered the fastest growing and best placed to the world. overcome global headwinds than most emerging markets.
The IMD’s renewed assessment on April 11 it put the probability at 50% – came even as the government decided to take further steps to protect farmers, notably by creating a system for specific advisory services and forecasts for each of India’s 700-odd districts based on different rainfall scenarios.
The monsoon-disrupting weather pattern, triggered by the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is causing climate chaos around the world and frequent droughts in India.
The IMD said on Friday that there is a 70% probability of El Nino occurring in the June, July and August season and the probability rises to 80% in the July, August and September season.
With El Nino (little boy in Spanish) almost certain to emerge, the Union agriculture ministry and the IMD are holding monthly meetings to prepare region-specific mitigation plans, a senior official said, requesting anonymity.
The monsoon is the lifeblood of the world’s fifth largest economy. Almost half of the country’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation, which is why the rain retention system is vital. It also replenishes 91 natural reservoirs that supply electricity, factories and drinking water supplies.
Between 2001 and 2020, India experienced seven El Nino years. Of these, four resulted in droughts (2003, 2005, 2009–10, 2015–16). These years also saw a decline in kharif or summer farm crop production by 16%, 8%, 10% and 3% respectively, triggering inflation. The Kharif harvest accounts for nearly half of the country’s annual food supply.
70% chance of El Nino developing
An El Nino in 2023 is expected to develop after a triple dip La Nina (2020-22). La Nina is the opposite of El Nina and is characterized by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
“We expected that the situation might change a little in April. The dynamic model had to take these circumstances into account. If the statistical model has not accounted for them, we have to see what changes are reflected by the end of May and announce it in our update,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
On Thursday, US government forecasters raised the odds of an El Nino to 74% from 61% a month ago.
Earth is counting on another weather phenomenon, the currently positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which tends to intensify rains and thwart El Nino. The IOD is the temperature difference between two locations (west and east) in the Indian Ocean.
Droughts are no longer the disaster they once were, thanks to a significant jump in farm productivity. In 2009, when the country experienced its worst drought in three decades, the nation managed to produce a million tons more food than in 2007, a normal monsoon year.
The country’s food production has risen sharply – from around 50 million tonnes in 1950-51 to 323.5 million tonnes in 2022-23 – helping to avoid the dreaded “Malthusian world” of food production not keeping pace with population growth. Yet the drought continues to increase inflation, erode farm incomes and hurt the overall economy.
“In 2023-24, inflation is expected to hover between 5.0% and 5.6% if India survives an El Nino event adversely affecting the southwest monsoon, given global uncertainty,” the Reserve Bank of India said in its latest bulletin. India.
The uneven rains have indirectly affected the economy. A bad harvest reduces spending on consumer goods. For example, rural buyers account for nearly half of the annual sales of two-wheelers and TVs, according to industry data. Currently, subdued consumer demand is the key factor holding back the economy. Monsoon is considered normal if it is between 96-104%. A shift of one percentage point will mean a below-normal monsoon.
During 2022-23, aggregate supply (the total availability of goods and services) as measured by gross value added, a measure of income, grew by 6.6% thanks to “services and agriculture sectors, while the industrial sector slowed due to increasing input cost pressures,” the RBI said in its March bulletin.
This means the agriculture sector remains vital for growth and any adverse impact on it will spread across the economy, said Abhishek Agrawal of Comtrade, a commodities trading firm.
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