New Delhi – As the exit polls for the Delhi Assembly elections are set to be released later today, past trends show that while pollsters have correctly identified winners, they have often underestimated the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) dominance. From 2013 to 2020, exit polls have struggled to capture the full extent of Arvind Kejriwal’s electoral strength, sometimes overestimating BJP and Congress performances.
2013: Underestimating AAP’s Debut Surge
Exit polls in 2013 predicted a close contest, placing BJP in the lead with an estimated 35 seats, just short of the 36-seat majority, while forecasting 17 seats each for AAP and Congress. However, the final results surprised many:
AAP – 28 seats
BJP – 32 seats
Congress – 8 seats
The polls significantly underestimated AAP’s appeal, which was fueled by the India Against Corruption movement. The most accurate prediction came from Today’s Chanakya, which projected AAP at 31 seats.
2015: Polls Predicted AAP’s Win, but Not Its Scale
In 2015, exit polls correctly anticipated AAP’s landslide victory but failed to gauge its full scale. On average, they predicted:
AAP – 45 seats
BJP – 24 seats
Congress – 1 seat
The final results, however, saw AAP securing 67 out of 70 seats, leaving just three for the BJP. The closest forecast came from Axis My India, which estimated 53 seats for AAP, but no poll saw the party crossing 60 seats.
2020: Improved Accuracy but Still Below the Mark
By 2020, pollsters improved their predictions, giving AAP an average of 54 seats, BJP 15, and Congress close to none. The final results were:
AAP – 62 seats
BJP – 8 seats
Congress – 0 seats
The India Today-Axis My India poll was the most precise, predicting an AAP victory in the range of 59-68 seats. However, some polls still overestimated BJP’s strength, with a few projecting more than 20 seats for the party.
As Delhi awaits this year’s exit poll results, past trends suggest that while they capture the overall direction, they often miss the scale of AAP’s dominance. Whether 2025 will be different remains to be seen.
