New Delhi – The devastating landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, which resulted in over 120 deaths and 128 injuries, are being attributed by scientists to a combination of climate change, excessive mining, and the loss of forest cover in the region. The catastrophic event, triggered by heavy rains, has left many still feared trapped under debris, with the Met Office warning of more rainfall in the coming days.
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Patterns
Heavy rain on Tuesday initiated the landslides in Wayanad district. According to S. Abhilash, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), the warming of the Arabian Sea is a significant factor contributing to the extreme and unpredictable rainfall patterns in Kerala. “Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above this region, including Kerala, to become thermodynamically unstable,” Abhilash told.
Scientists have noted a trend of deep cloud systems forming due to the warming of the Arabian Sea, leading to intense rain in shorter periods, which increases the risk of landslides. This pattern has been observed since the 2019 Kerala floods and was detailed in a 2022 study published in Climate and Atmospheric Science journal, indicating a shift towards more convective rainfall over the west coast of India.
Deforestation and Loss of Green Cover
A significant contributor to the landslides is the loss of forest cover in Wayanad. A 2021 study on landslide hotspots in India revealed that 59% of landslides in Kerala occurred in plantation areas. Moreover, a 2022 study showed that 62% of forests in Wayanad disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover increased by around 1,800%.
The study, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, highlighted that about 85% of Wayanad’s area was under forest cover until the 1950s. The loss of forests has increased the terrain’s fragility, especially in regions prone to heavy rains, such as the Western Ghats.
Environmental Neglect and Mining Activities
Environmental neglect and rampant mining have exacerbated the situation. Since 2011, the “Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel,” led by ecologist Madhav Gadgil, has recommended declaring the Wayanad hill ranges as ecologically sensitive. The panel suggested dividing the region into zones based on their ecological sensitivity and implementing strict regulations to protect the most vulnerable sections from commercial activities.
The panel’s recommendations included banning mining, quarrying, new thermal power plants, hydropower projects, and large-scale wind energy projects in the most sensitive zones. However, these suggestions have not been implemented, facing resistance from state governments, industries, and local communities.
The landslides in Wayanad serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for environmental conservation and sustainable practices. Rahul Gandhi, in response to the disaster, has urged the government to extend all possible support to the affected regions. The Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) National Remote Sensing Centre’s 2023 landslide atlas highlights that 10 out of the 30 most landslide-prone districts in India are located in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th.
As rescue efforts continue, hampered by heavy rain, dense fog, and the absence of key bridges, it is clear that immediate action is needed to address the root causes of such natural disasters. Implementing the panel’s recommendations and adopting sustainable environmental practices could mitigate the impact of future landslides and protect the lives and livelihoods of those in vulnerable regions.
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