A collision once believed to be an unavoidable galactic apocalypse may actually be far less certain. A new study, powered by refined data from the Hubble and Gaia space telescopes, suggests that the long-anticipated crash between our Milky Way and its cosmic neighbor Andromeda may not unfold as previously predicted.
Earlier theories proposed a direct head-on collision in about 4.5 billion years, forming a dramatic merger dubbed “Milkomeda.” However, fresh analysis now shows that the chance of a collision in that time frame is only about 2%. Even over the next 10 billion years, the probability remains just around 50%.
This significant update reshapes our understanding of the Milky Way’s future. “Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our galaxy,” said Carlos Frenk, co-author of the study and professor at Durham University. “We now know there’s a very good chance we may avoid that scary destiny.”
Lead author Dr. Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki explains that even if the galaxies do eventually interact, it may be less catastrophic than once believed. A collision could trigger a massive starburst, birthing countless new stars. These young stars would later die in brilliant explosions, while the supermassive black holes at the galactic centers might enter hyperactive phases, releasing intense radiation.
Following such a merger if it occurs the galaxies would lose their iconic spiral shapes and morph into a large, elliptical one, quite unlike the Milky Way we know today.
But Andromeda may not be the Milky Way’s biggest concern.
Professor Frenk warns that a more imminent threat may come from the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a satellite galaxy currently orbiting the Milky Way. That encounter could take place in as little as 2 billion years and may significantly distort the structure of our galaxy.
Dr. Sawala also noted that Andromeda’s own satellite galaxy, M33 (Triangulum), is tugging gravitationally on the Milky Way, adding complexity to the dynamics between the two giants.
Astrophysicist Geraint Lewis from the University of Sydney summed it up: even if a collision does happen, the gravitational mayhem could leave both galaxies in a cosmic mess though humanity, long extinct by then, won’t be around to witness the grand reshaping of the night sky.
For now, the fate of the Milky Way hangs in the balance of a slow-motion cosmic ballet, unfolding over billions of years.