A new study led by researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) paints a grim picture for the Himalayan region, warning of enduring drought conditions if global temperatures continue to rise. Published in the journal Climatic Change, the study underscores the escalating risks posed by climate change to both human livelihoods and natural ecosystems.
Key Findings:
Drought Perils: The study projects that a staggering 90% of the Himalayan region could face prolonged droughts lasting over a year if global warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius.
Agricultural Vulnerability: With each degree of warming, agricultural lands across India, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Ghana become increasingly susceptible to severe drought conditions. Over 50% of agricultural land in these nations is forecasted to be exposed to prolonged droughts over the next three decades.
Heat Stress Mitigation: Adhering to the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, particularly limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, could mitigate heat stress significantly. The report suggests that up to 80% of increased human exposure to heat stress in India could be avoided by staying within the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
Biodiversity Protection: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius offers a lifeline for biodiversity. In India, for instance, reducing warming to 1.5 degrees could preserve half of the country’s biodiversity, compared to a mere 6% under 3 degrees of warming.
Economic Impacts: A reduction in global warming not only mitigates agricultural losses but also curbs economic damages caused by fluvial flooding. Conversely, coastal nations face escalating economic damages associated with sea-level rise as global temperatures continue to climb.
The study underscores the urgent need for collective action to curb global warming and mitigate its dire consequences. By adhering to ambitious climate targets, nations can safeguard human livelihoods, protect biodiversity, and mitigate the economic toll of climate change. The fate of the Himalayan region serves as a stark reminder of the pressing need for decisive action to secure a sustainable future for all.
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