Meteorologists are optimistic as El Nino conditions, which led to a warm 2023, are expected to weaken and dissipate by June 2024. The potential transition to La Nina conditions by August brings hope for improved monsoon rains, crucial for India’s agriculture sector and economy. However, challenges remain due to the ‘spring predictability barrier’, making weather forecasting uncertain.
Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, highlights a high probability of La Nina developing by June-July. Even if El Nino transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions, the monsoon outlook appears promising, offering relief after below-average rainfall in 2023.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirm El Nino’s weakening, with historical trends suggesting a potential La Nina following strong El Nino events. Dr. Sivananda Pai of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) underscores uncertainty in forecasting but anticipates an end to El Nino.
In 2023, India experienced below-average rainfall due to a strengthening El Nino, impacting agriculture and GDP. The transition to La Nina by June could herald timely and abundant monsoon rains, although high temperatures may bring challenges like intense cyclones and extreme rains, as noted by climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll.
Despite the transition, global temperature anomalies may persist, with recent La Nina periods exhibiting warmer temperatures compared to past El Nino years. As meteorologists monitor these developments, hopes remain high for a favorable monsoon season and its positive impact on India’s agricultural landscape.
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