Thirty years is considered to be too short to represent climate change, “said Petr Chylek, a natural scientist and climate researcher at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead author of research at Geophysical Research Letters.” We have reduced the period to 21 years. In that relatively short period of time and, contrary to previous research which found that the growth rate of the Arctic is rising steadily, we saw two distinct steps, one in 1986 and the second in 1999. “
Because the ten-year episode of the program identified by Chylek and his collaborators affects global climate and sea levels, accurately predict future climate change is a critical moment in planning any mitigation of impacts and developing adaptability strategies. The Arctic influences the climate and climate of the world, and the melting of the Greenland ice is causing sea levels to threaten many coastal communities.
The indicator of amplification in the study is the Arctic average of 21 years of temperature compared to the global temperature trend of 21 years.The study calculates that the index for the growth of the Arctic was greater than 4 during the first decades of the 21st century, four times faster than the definition of the earth and much faster than previously published studies that determined time intervals of 30 to 40 years. These previous studies identified an index between 2 and 3.
From the 39 climate change models in the widely used CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, a team of international researchers found four repetitive start-up measures around 1986, but none again produced a second step in 1999. CMIP is an international co-operative organization. of weather models using a set set of parameters. CMIP6 has been used to construct the Intergovernmental Panel on the latest Climate Change Report.
“We said the first step was caused by an increase in carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the atmosphere, because few models do it right,” said Chylek, “but the second step we think is due to climate change because no models can reproduce. The second step.”Short-term climate change is often not seen by weather models with their own time estimates of 30 years and length.
This study does not pinpoint the cause of this sudden increase, but the authors speculate that the underlying causes are likely to be sea ice and water evaporation combined with changes in the temperature of the oceans and the oceans entering the Arctic. Future increases in the Arctic Growth Index may be small as the temperature difference between the Arctic and the tropics decreases.
It is important for the transformation of the Arctic
Chylek said a team of researchers would next study future Arctic climate models using the four closest models to match the noted warming process, with the speakers.”Because the four models produce well at least a first step, we think they are a little better at predicting the future weather,” Chylek said. “People often make a rating for all the models and think the collection is more reliable than any single model. We show that the rating does not work in this situation.”
The research team downloaded publicly available Arctic temperature data and used simulated output from climate models in the CMIP6 collection.”People are not only interested in climate change for a long time, but they are also interested in the next 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. it said. The research team included members from Los Alamos, University of East Anglia, PAR Associates, University of Washington, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Dalhousie University.
Source Reference: Petr Chylek, Chris Folland, James D. Klett, Muyin Wang, Nick Hengartner, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K. Dubey. Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022; 49 (13) DOI: 10.1029/2022GL099371
