An international study, led by the University of Bristol, looked at the 2020 Super Cyclone Amphan – the most expensive hurricane to cross South Asia – and revealed its effects on various sea level rise due to global warming.
The findings, published today in the journal Royal Meteorological Society, Climate Resilience and Sustainability, have shown that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate, more than two and a half times (250%) of Indians will face flooding. more than 1 meter, compared to the 2020 event.
Leading author Dann Mitchell, professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol, stated: “South Asia is one of the world’s most sensitive climates, with severe cyclones that cause tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of deaths in historical events. very little climate impact research is being conducted in South Asia, despite the fact that the Climate Change Panel Panel highlights it as such a critical region.
“This study, in collaboration with local scientists, provides much-needed climate impact information in one of the world’s most endangered regions. , and adaptability is easily accessible. “
Researchers, including scientists from Bangladesh, have used the complexity of the weather model to predict the magnitude of hurricane damage in this century.
Although the growing number of people at risk is expected to be modest in Bangladesh, which is projected to increase by 60% to 70%, this is due to future decline in coastal population. Encouragingly, a team of researchers went on to demonstrate whether the Paris protocol for climate change of 2 degrees Celsius had been adhered to, with population exposure to floods almost zero.
But even in this climate of warmth, exposure in India still shows a shocking increase of between 50% and 80% expected in future floods.
The main objective of the Paris Agreement, a global framework for climate change, is to keep global temperatures below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels and to try to reduce temperatures to 1.5 ° C.
Saiful Islam, professor of Hydrology at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and co-author of the study, said: the future. This study shows that population exposure in Bangladesh and India will increase to 200% in the future due to severe flooding (greater than 3 meters) from severe storms under high evacuation conditions. reducing gas is crucial to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and to reduce the losses and injuries of high-risk countries such as Bangladesh. “
Source Journal Reference: ‘Increased population exposure to Amphan-scale cyclones under future climates’, Climate Resilience and Sustainability (2022).
