Coal energy consumption is not falling fast enough. The Paris Agreement target of a maximum of 2 degrees of warming appears to have been missed and the world is on track for a 2.5-3 degree rise in temperature. At the same time, it is possible to prevent higher warming. Scientists from Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden show this in a new study.
Aleh Cherp, professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University says “More and more countries are promising to phase out coal from their energy systems, which is positive. Unfortunately, their commitments are not strong enough. If we are to have a real chance of meeting the 2 degree target, gradual Coal must be used up faster”.
Phasing out coal is necessary to keep global temperature increases below 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. In a study by the Master Electrification research program, a group of researchers analyzed the pledged commitments of 72 countries to phase out the use of coal by 2022-2050.
At best, scientists show that it is possible for the temperature increase to remain at 2 degrees. But this assumes, among other things, that China and India will begin to gradually abandon the use of coal within five years. Moreover, their phasing out must be as rapid as it was in the UK, the fastest ever in a major country and faster than Germany promised. This can create inequalities that will need to be addressed by international policies.
Global warming of up to 3 degrees is likely
The research group has also developed scenarios it considers to be the most realistic. These scenarios suggest that the Earth is moving towards a global warming of 2.5-3 degrees.
Jessica Jewell, associate professor in the Division of Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers University of Technology says “Country commitments are not enough, even among the most ambitious countries. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may prevent some countries from phasing out coal as promised”.
The study shows that the 72 countries’ commitments to phase out coal power are similar to each other and are consistent with historical data on how quickly coal power has been phased out in the past.
Written by: Vaishali Verma
