Young people’s life expectancy can be up to 14 years shorter in violent countries than in peaceful ones, a global study has found. A team led by researchers from the University of Oxford in the UK shows a direct link between the insecurity of living in a violent environment and the “double burden” of shorter and less predictable lives, even for those not directly involved in violence.
The study, published in the journal Science Advances, estimates a difference of about 14 years in life expectancy the number of years a person can expect at age 10 between the least and most violent countries.
In El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia, the difference in life expectancy with high-income countries is mainly explained by excess homicide rates, they said. “Most strikingly, lifetime insecurity has a greater association with violence than life expectancy,” said Jose Manuel Aburto of Oxford’s Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science.
Based on mortality data from 162 countries and the Internal Peace Index from 2008-2017, the study shows that the most violent countries are also those with the highest lifetime insecurity. “Lifetime uncertainty should therefore not be overlooked when analyzing changes in mortality patterns,” said Aburto, lead author of the study.
In the Middle East, conflict-related deaths at a young age are the biggest contributors, while in Latin America a similar pattern results from homicides and interpersonal violence, the researchers said.
However, life expectancy uncertainty was “remarkably low” in most northern and southern European countries between 2008 and 2017, they said. In high-income countries, reduced cancer mortality has recently helped reduce lifelong uncertainty, researchers have found.
However, in the most violent societies, even those who are not directly involved in the violence experience lifelong insecurity. “While men are the main direct victims of violence, women are more likely to experience non-fatal consequences in violent contexts,” said study co-author Professor Ridhi Kashyap of the Leverhulme Centre.
“These indirect effects of violence should not be ignored as they promote gender inequalities and can create additional forms of vulnerability and causes of death,” said Kashyap. Shorter life expectancy is usually associated with greater lifetime uncertainty, according to the study. Living in a violent society creates vulnerability and insecurity, which in turn can lead to more violent behavior.
