A study led by Newcastle University and the Met Office, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, This could lead to more lightning over the mountains and in northern Europe and less lightning in central Europe. Found there could be a picture of changing weather patterns, including More frequent thunderstorms with more energy, but locally less lightning mainly due to less cloud ice and frozen particles in storm clouds, with warming & More lightning at high altitude – including over the Alps & Less lightning in lower terrain in central Europe and over the sea – subject to circulation changes that are less certain.
The researchers found that these changes could lead to an increased risk of wildfires in mountains and northern Europe, but as the authors explain, it’s not all bad news. The lead author of the study, Dr. Abdullah Kahraman, Senior Researcher in Severe Weather and Climate Change, School of Engineering, Newcastle University and Visiting Scientist – Understanding Regional Climate Change (URCC), Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “While more frequent lightning strikes in the mountains and in northern Europe could cause more forest fires at higher levels, we will see relatively less lightning danger over more populated areas of central Europe.”
This is from the Met Office’s latest climate simulations, with the highest local detail in meteorological and topographic features down to 2 km, which, unlike previous studies, allows individual storms and their key processes leading to lightning to be simulated across Europe. This is one possible realization of an unmitigated future climate (RCP8.5 scenario) and uncertainties exist especially in terms of circulation changes.
Professor Lizzie Kendon, Met Office Science Fellow and co-author of the paper, said: “These new very high resolution climate projections, which have the same level of resolution as weather forecast models, provide new insight into future changes in convective storms. and associated hazards – such as heavy downpours, lightning, hail and gusts of wind. The changes in lightning in this study contradict previous studies. This shows us that representing the underlying physical processes in the storms themselves is important and may lead to future changes that are even of the opposite sign.”
The researchers say the findings highlight the need to reassess the risk of lightning to forest fires, property and human life across Europe. Study co-author Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University School of Engineering, added: “This is just another piece of bad news for critical national infrastructure in Northern Europe, following the damning report ‘Storm Preparedness?’ infrastructure in the age of climate change” Joint Committee on National Security Strategy last week.
Our paper highlighted new risks from increases in lightning, previously unknown, that will require increased investment in climate adaptation measures. Further analysis is needed of the potential impact of these increases in lightning on energy and other critical infrastructure systems in order to create policies and measures that are relevant to adaptation planning for local and sectoral purposes.”
