If coronavirus vaccines were distributed more equitably to lower-income countries, and wealthier countries maintained mitigation measures such as smaller gatherings and wearing masks for longer, about 3.8 million lives could be saved. Data from 152 countries show that the impact of vaccine sharing would be significant if countries focused on their equitable distribution, preventing about 1.3 million unnecessary lives lost globally.
Mathematical epidemiologist Sam Moore and his team at the University of Warwick in Coventry, UK, used data on excess mortality and vaccine availability to conduct the study, which was published about a week ago in the journal Nature Medicine. The results were consistent with another study that found that about 45 percent of COVID-19 deaths in low-income countries could be prevented if countries reached 20 percent vaccination coverage by the end of 2021.
The report highlighted that while half the world had access to both vaccine doses by the end of last year, their distribution between countries showed a significant gap. While higher-income countries had nearly 75 percent of vaccine availability—the excess they planned to administer to lower-risk children; the data found that some lower-income countries had less than 2% vaccination coverage, putting people at higher risk of dying from Covid-19 on the receiving end of the stick.
Oliver Watson, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, says the data should be used in planning for future outbreaks. “This is another piece of evidence that shows how much of an impact vaccination advocacy can have,” he says. “That’s really important for engaging political will and making big policy decisions.” The study determined these results based on vaccine provisions and did not take into account other factors such as vaccine storage and administration capacity.
