India is once again staring down a long, harsh summer but this time, even weather predictions aren’t offering much clarity. As doubts rise over the accuracy of seasonal forecasts, several states are likely to experience an increase in extreme weather days, from scorching heatwaves to sudden, intense rain.
According to current projections, a large number of states including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are at risk of facing a higher number of heatwave days this summer.
Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha may be among the worst affected, with an estimated 10 to 11 heatwave days expected during the season. These conditions are being compared to the record-breaking summer of 2023, when India logged 536 heatwave days the highest count in 14 years. That year also went down as the hottest ever, both in India and across the world.
But as the sun scorches large parts of the country, the southern and northeastern regions are seeing a very different pattern: heavy and unpredictable rains. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are forecast to witness light to moderate showers on Saturday, with isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching speeds of 40–50 kmph. Some district Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Erode, Theni, Dindigul, Salem, and Tiruppur could also receive heavy rainfall.
From April 6 to 10, light to moderate rain may continue in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, while other parts of South Peninsular India, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and the Northeast could also experience thunderstorms and gusty winds.
The IMD also warns of isolated hailstorms over Assam and Meghalaya on April 5, and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura the next day. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall is likely in Kerala, Mahe, Arunachal Pradesh, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands between April 5 and 6.
As India prepares to face both rising temperatures and intense rain events, the gap between forecast and ground reality continues to widen. In a time when accurate early warnings are more critical than ever, people across the country are left asking the same question: Can we really rely on the forecast anymore?
