The world’s top cocoa-producing regions face an uncertain future as climate change threatens to reshape cocoa farming in West and Central Africa. A new study warns that rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could cut the suitable cocoa-growing area by 50% by 2050, forcing production to move away from traditional powerhouses like Ghana and Ivory Coast.
Ivory Coast, Ghana Face Major Yield Losses
The study, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, analyzed cocoa yields in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, which collectively produce over 70% of the world’s cocoa. Using the CASEJ crop model, researchers simulated cocoa growth under changing climate scenarios for 2030–2060.
Findings reveal that the northern cocoa belt of Ivory Coast and Ghana could see a 12% drop in yields, making parts of the region unsuitable for cocoa farming. Nigeria could experience a 10% decline, while Cameroon’s losses are estimated at 2%.
Cocoa Farming Shifts, But at What Cost?
As climate conditions worsen, cocoa production may shift eastward from Ghana and Ivory Coast to Nigeria and Cameroon. While this could boost Cameroon’s cocoa industry, it raises fears of increased deforestation as farmers clear rainforest for new plantations.
“Balancing cocoa production with forest conservation will be a major challenge in the coming decades,” researchers warned, noting Cameroon’s vast but vulnerable rainforests.
Can Cocoa Adapt to a Hotter World?
Despite the threats, scientists say rising CO₂ levels might offer some relief by enhancing photosynthesis, potentially mitigating drought and heat stress. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain, especially with risks like pests, diseases, and altered flowering cycles due to warming.
Experts stress the need for urgent adaptation strategies to safeguard cocoa farming and protect global supply chains. With chocolate demand soaring, the future of the world’s favorite treat depends on how effectively cocoa-growing nations respond to the climate crisis.