The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, have increased again, with NASA’s latest calculations placing the probability at 2.3%. This is a significant jump from the 1.3% estimate given by the European Space Agency just a week ago, raising concerns about the space rock’s trajectory and potential impact.
Discovered in December 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile, the asteroid has been closely monitored ever since. Scientists estimate its size to be anywhere between 130 to 300 feet across, making it large enough to cause widespread destruction if it were to hit a populated area. While it is not big enough to trigger a global catastrophe, its impact could be devastating, potentially wiping out an entire city.
NASA has classified 2024 YR4 as a level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranks potential asteroid impacts from 0 to 10 based on the likelihood of a collision and its expected consequences. A ranking of 3 means that while the risk is still being evaluated, the asteroid warrants serious attention. Objects with a ranking of 5 to 7 are considered more threatening, while a definite collision would be classified in the 8 to 10 range.
According to NASA’s tracking data, 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical four-year orbit, bringing it close to the inner planets before shooting past Mars and toward Jupiter. If it does hit Earth, potential impact sites include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, scientists remain cautious in their predictions, emphasizing that more observations are needed to refine the asteroid’s path.
The possibility of such an impact immediately draws comparisons to past asteroid events. The most infamous occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide asteroid triggered a global climate disaster, leading to the extinction of 75% of all species, including the dinosaurs. A more recent example is the Tunguska Event in 1908, when an asteroid or comet fragment 30 to 50 meters wide exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 2,000 square kilometers.
Despite the growing concerns, scientists say that many asteroids initially considered threats have been later downgraded as more data becomes available. Ongoing observations will determine whether 2024 YR4 remains a serious concern or if its risk level will eventually be reduced to zero. For now, astronomers continue to track its movements closely, waiting for more clarity on whether this asteroid could be on a collision course with Earth in 2032.
