The world is approaching the threshold of global warming that is trying to prevent it, with a 50-50 chance that the Earth will temporarily strike that temperature signal for the next five years, groups of meteorologists around the world predict. As man-made climate change continues, there is a 48% chance that the world will reach an annual average of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the late 1800s at least once between now and 2026, which is bright red. mark in discussions on climate change and science, a team of 11 different meteorologists predicted the World Meteorological Organization by the end of Monday.
Chances are with the thermometer. Last year, the same forecasters reported problems in about 40% and in the last ten years it was only 10%.The team, co-ordinated by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, in its five-year vision, said there was a good chance the world would record a very hot record by the end of 2026. five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest in history. Forecasters predict a catastrophic drought in the southwestern United States.
Forecasters based on seasonal and seasonal averages
“We will see continuous warming in line with what is expected of climate change,” said UK Met Office chief scientist Leon Hermanson, who co-ordinated the report.
These forecasts are a masterpiece of global and regional weather forecasters based on seasonal and seasonal averages based on long-term average computer simulations and state-of-the-art computer simulations. They are different from accurate weather forecasts that predict the day’s temperature in certain areas.
But even if the earth were to reach that level of 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial era — the planet has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s — that is not exactly the same as the international limit first set by the 2015 Paris Agreement . In 2018, a major UN scientific report predicted amazing and dangerous consequences for humans and the world when temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees.
This forecast is reasonable in view of global warming and is expected to increase ten degrees Fahrenheit (about two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) due to climate change caused by humans over the next five years, says meteorologist Zeke Hausfather. technology company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, which were not part of the forecast teams. In addition, the potential for a powerful El Nino — the occasional natural warming of parts of the Pacific that changes the earth’s climate — could temporarily throw a few tenths of a degree up and down the earth at 1.5 degrees.
The earth is in its second consecutive year of La Nina, as opposed to El Nino, which has a global cooling effect but is not enough to combat the global warming of greenhouse gases, coal and natural gas, scientists say. The five-year forecast says La Nina is likely to expire later this year or 2023.The effect of greenhouse gases on fossil fuels is similar to the setting of global temperatures. El Nino, La Nina and a handful of other climate changes are like stepping up or down the stairs, scientists say.
On average, the Arctic will still warm up to three times the winter temperature on average. Although Southwest and Southwest Europe are likely to be drier than usual in the next five years, wetter conditions are expected in the arid African regions of the Sahel, northern Europe, northeastern Brazil and Australia, the report predicted.
The international team has been making these predictions casually for ten years and officially for about five years, with more than 90% accuracy, Hermansonsaid.Leading NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt said the figures in the report were “slightly warmer” than those used by US NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He also questioned the level of competence in the region’s long-term forecasting.
“Regardless of what is being predicted here, we may have surpassed 1.5 degrees C in the next decade or so, but that does not mean we are determined to do so over time – or that working to reduce other changes is not worth it,” Schmidt said in an email.
For More Read: https://phys.org/news/2022-05-earth-chance-key.html
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