Extreme weather, such as prolonged drought and heavy rainfall, is becoming more common as the global average temperature rises and will only get worse in the coming decades. How will the planet’s ecosystems react? That’s the big question and the background of our study,” said biologist John Jackson, who, along with fellow biologists Christie Le Coeur of the University of Oslo and Owen Jones of the University of Southern Denmark, created the new study published. John Jackson is now at Oxford University, but was at the University of Southern Denmark when the study was conducted. Owen Jones is Associate Professor in the Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark.
A llama, a moose and an elephant
In the study, the authors analyzed data on population fluctuations from 157 mammal species from around the world and compared them with weather and climate data from the time the animals’ data were collected. There are 10 or more years of data for each species.
Their analysis gave them insight into how populations of animal species balanced out during times of extreme weather: Were they more or less numerous? Did they have more or fewer offspring? “We can see a clear pattern: Animals that live long and have few offspring are less vulnerable when extreme weather strikes than animals that live short and have many offspring. Examples are llamas, long-lived bats and elephants versus mice.” , opossums and rare marsupials such as the woylie,” said Owen Jones.
Less affected by extreme weather:
African elephant, Siberian tiger, chimpanzee, greater hornbill, llama, vicuña, white rhinoceros, grizzly bear, American bison, klipspringer, Schreiber’s bat.
More affected by extreme weather:
Azara mouse, olive mouse, elegant thick-tailed opossum, Canadian lemming, tundra vole, arctic fox, weasel, shrew, woylie, arctic ground squirrel.
A quick fall – but also a quick boom
Large, long-lived animals cope better with conditions such as prolonged drought; their ability to survive, reproduce, and raise their offspring is not affected to the same extent as small, short-lived animals. For example, they may invest their energy in one offspring, or simply wait for better times when conditions are challenging.
On the other hand, small short-lived rodents have more extreme short-term population changes. In the case of prolonged drought, for example, large parts of their food base: insects, flowers, fruits, can disappear more quickly, and they starve because they have limited fat reserves. Populations of these small mammals can also expand to take advantage when conditions improve because, unlike large mammals, they can produce many offspring.
It is not the same as extinction risk
“These small mammals respond quickly to extreme weather and it goes both ways. Therefore, their vulnerability to extreme weather should not be equated with the risk of extinction,” said John Jackson. It also reminds us that a species’ ability to withstand climate change must not stand alone when assessing a species’ vulnerability to extinction:”Habitat destruction, poaching, pollution and invasive species are factors that threaten many animal species – in many cases even more than climate change,” he stressed.
Animals we don’t know much about
The scientists’ study not only provides insight into how these particular 157 mammal species are responding to climate change here and now. The study may also contribute to a better general understanding of how the planet’s animals will respond to ongoing climate change. “We expect that climate change will bring more extreme weather in the future. Animals will have to cope with this extreme weather as they always have.
So our analysis helps predict how different species of animals might respond to future climate change based on their general traits even though we have limited data on their populations,” said Owen Jones. An example is the woylie, a rare Australian marsupial. Biologists don’t know much about the species, but because it shares a similar lifestyle to mice meaning it’s small, short-lived, and reproduces quickly it can be predicted to respond to extreme weather. in a similar way to mice.
Entire ecosystems will change
“Equally, there are a lot of animal species that we don’t know much about, but whose response we can now predict,” explained John Jackson. In this way, scientists expect that the ability of different animal species to adapt to climate change is related to their life strategies, and this can help us predict ecological changes:
As habitat suitability changes due to climate change, species may be forced to move to new areas as old areas become inhospitable. These shifts depend on species’ life strategies and can have a major impact on ecosystem functioning.
Source Reference: ohn Jackson, Christie Le Coeur, Owen Jones. Life history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals. eLife, 2022; 11 DOI: 10.7554/eLife.74161
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