Over the next 50 years, climate change could lead to more than 15,000 new cases of mammals transmitting the virus to other mammals, according to a study published in Nature1. It is the first to predict how global warming will alter wildlife habitats and increase interactions between species that can exchange viruses, as well as calculate how many times germs are expected to jump between species.
Many researchers say that the COVID-19 epidemic may have begun when the previously unknown coronavirus passed from one animal to another: a process called zoonotic transmission. The predicted increase in bacterial overgrowth could lead to further outbreaks, posing a serious threat to human and animal health, the study warns – giving more reason for governments and health organizations to invest in biological surveillance and to improve health care infrastructure.
The study “is an important first step in understanding the future risks of climate change and land use change in the ensuing epidemic,” said Kate Jones, an example of the interaction between nature and human health at University College London.
Studies predict that many new viruses will occur when species mingle for the first time as they migrate to cooler climates due to rising temperatures. It is also a project that this will happen mainly in the animal-rich areas of the highlands, especially in Africa and Asia, and in densely populated areas, including the African region of the Sahel, India and Indonesia. Assuming the planet is warming by no more than 2 ° C above pre-industrial temperatures in this century – the future predicted for further climate analysis – the number of first meetings between species will double by 2070, creating tropical transmission areas, research. he says.
“This work gives us irrefutable proof that the next few decades will not only be hot, but very sick,” said Gregory Albery, a natural pathologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC and co-author of the study.
Modeling challenges
To make their predictions, Albery and colleagues developed and tested models, and made simulations over a five-year period. They have combined models of virus transmission and distribution of species under a variety of climate change conditions, focusing on mammals because of their importance to human health.
His team is modeling the distribution of animal species to predict where mammals will migrate to find habitats as the planet warms. The virus transmission model predicts the likelihood of the virus breeding among species for the first time, by considering where species may come into contact where their habitats change and how they are related to evolution (viruses are more likely to spread between related species).
Modeling seems to be “technologically advanced,” says Ignacio Morales-Castilla, a worldwide biologist at the University of Alcalá, Spain, although he points out that predictive experiments like these sometimes need to incorporate false ideas. However, he added that the scope and scope of the study and its ability to identify which parts of the world are most likely to be at risk are “obvious”.
Another theory that researchers had to consider was how far and wide the species of animals spread as the climate changed. But factors such as whether mammals are adaptable or overcrowded in their habitats are difficult to predict.
Bats are expected to play a role in transmitting the virus regardless of these factors, the study found. Considered to be part of the origin of COVID-19, bats are known to harbor viruses and make up about 20% of mammals. The team says that – in part because bats can fly – they are less likely to encounter obstacles in changing their habitats.
Although Jones applauded the study, he called for caution when discussing its effects on human health. “Predicting the risk of transmission of the virus from mammals to humans is highly skewed, as this flow occurs in a complex ecosystem as well as human and economic,” he said.
There are many factors that can reduce the risk to human health, including increased investment in health care or a virus that can infect people for some reason, he adds.
But researchers urge there is no time to waste. The earth is already warming more than 1 ° C above pre-industrial temperatures, and this is driving the migration of species and the spread of disease. “It is possible and unavoidable, even in the best of climate change conditions,” Albery said.
Albery and one of his co-authors, Colin Carlson, a global biologist who is also at the University of Georgetown, say that while some increase in infection is inevitable, that is not an excuse for inactivity. Researchers are calling on governments and the international community to improve wildlife monitoring and monitoring of wildlife and zoonotic diseases, especially in the tropics of Southeast Asia. Improving health infrastructure is also important, they say.
As people begin to prepare for and adapt to global warming, many efforts are focused on activities such as halting deforestation or strengthening sea walls. But Carlson says the epidemic and disease surveillance are adaptable to climate change, too.
Source Journal Reference:Carlson, C. J. et al., Climate change will force new animal encounters — and boost viral outbreaks Nature 605, 20 (2022) doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01198-w
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