The vast majority (80%) of the 50 provinces that will face the greatest climate risk to their physical infrastructure by 2050 are in China, the US and India, according to a ranking released Monday by the Cross Dependency Initiative, which specializes in climate risk analysis. companies, banks and regions.
In India, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala and Assam are most vulnerable, with the ranking indicating that India’s commercial capital, Mumbai, is at high risk. India has nine of the 50 high-risk states; China, 26, and the US, five.
Extreme wind and Coastal flooding
The Gross Domestic Climate Risk Ranking reflects the physical risk to built infrastructure from eight risks associated with climate change: river and surface flooding, coastal flooding (coastal flooding), extreme heat, wildfires, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind and freeze-thaw.
The analysis uses global climate models combined with local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes to calculate the likely damage to the built environment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP 8.5 scenario – a high-emissions scenario consistent with average global warming above 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels temperatures by the end of the century.
In China, whose states dominate the ranking, the most affected provinces are concentrated in the east and south, along the floodplains and deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers. In the USA, the economically important states of California, Texas and Florida are most affected. Other countries with multiple provinces and states in the top 50 include Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia.
Rating data can be significant to investors because large built-up areas overlap with high levels of economic activity and property wealth. It can inform climate-resilient investments linked to adaptation measures and infrastructure planning by state and provincial governments, the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI) said in a statement on Monday.
The two most risky provinces in the world in 2050 are the two largest economic centers in China, Jiangsu and Shandong. Each has an economy worth over a trillion US dollars, according to the report.
“We are releasing this analysis in response to investor demand for data on sub-sovereign and regional risk. Findings from the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk rankings underscore the importance of pricing physical climate risk in financial markets, including bond markets, given the amount of capital investment represented by risky assets in identified provinces, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the need for climate resilience to inform investment… Now – for the first time – the financial industry can directly compare Mumbai, New York and Berlin using a similar methodology,” XDI CEO Rohan Hamden said on Monday.
Sea level rise poses a threat to many states in the US. The Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that the rate of sea level rise along the Mid-Atlantic coast was three to four times higher than the global average rate. In the Midwest, the highest ranked states are those with escalating flood and wildfire risk.
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