Space has always been an unnatural environment for humans. Without protection, we can’t survive for more than two minutes in the vacuum of space. Since 1961, fewer than 700 people have ventured beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Yet with the rise of private space companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, the number of people heading to space is expected to increase significantly.
As an astronomer who writes about space travel, I have spent considerable time contemplating the risks and rewards of exploring space. The commercial space industry’s growth brings the thrill of expanding human presence beyond Earth, but also a sobering reality: space travel is dangerous.
From the tragic losses of Challenger in 1986 and Columbia in 2003, to close calls on the International Space Station, space travel is inherently risky. To date, 30 astronauts and cosmonauts have died during space missions or training, and the fatality rate for space travelers stands at about 3%. This figure is higher than extreme sports like BASE jumping or solo free-climbing.
Additionally, accidents aren’t limited to space missions. On Earth, disasters such as the Apollo 1 launchpad fire in 1967, which killed three astronauts, and the explosion of an unmanned rocket in Russia in 1960, which claimed 120 lives, serve as stark reminders of the dangers involved.
The safety of commercial space companies has not been perfect either. While no civilians have died in space, accidents such as the fatal test flight of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo in 2014 and workplace injuries at SpaceX highlight the risks.
Civilians and High-Risk Missions
The era of civilian astronauts began in the 2020s, with the first all-civilian crew reaching orbit in 2021 on SpaceX’s Inspiration 4 mission. Now, the Polaris Dawn mission, launching in September 2024, represents the next major step for civilian space travelers. The mission is expected to push the limits of civilian space travel, with a planned altitude of 435 miles higher than any mission since Apollo.
The civilian crew of Polaris Dawn will face significant dangers. Exposure to high levels of radiation and performing spacewalks in untested spacesuits increase the risks. Any equipment malfunction could have severe consequences. The dangers are real, but so are the potential rewards.
The risks of space travel are counterbalanced by its rewards. The Polaris Dawn crew, for example, will conduct research on the effects of spaceflight on the human body, potentially contributing valuable insights for future deep-space exploration.
Another profound benefit is the “overview effect,” a psychological shift experienced by astronauts when they see Earth from space. This sense of awe and perspective often leads to a deeper appreciation for the fragility of our planet.
Future of Space Travel
The commercial space industry is booming, with SpaceX and Blue Origin leading the charge. Space tourism, while still largely reserved for the ultra-wealthy, is projected to grow into a multi-billion-dollar industry. Reusable rockets have dramatically lowered the cost of space launches, bringing the dream of space travel closer to reality for a broader demographic.
However, for space tourism to thrive, it must become safer and more affordable. Many space entrepreneurs expect space travel to follow the arc of aviation, which started as a luxury for the rich but became a mainstream mode of transportation over time. While making space travel as safe as flying may take time, reducing the risk to that of driving could be a more realistic goal.
As the commercial space industry evolves, the dream of seeing Earth from above or even traveling to other planets could become a reality for many. The question remains: how many people are willing to take the risk for the reward of venturing into space?
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