Ukraine is the second-largest country in Eastern Europe, after Russia, and shares its border with seven countries, namely, with Belarus on the north, Russia on the east, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea in the South, Moldova and Romania on the Southwest, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland on the West. Ukraine is separated from Russia by the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. With the disintegration of the USSR in December 1991, after the independence referendum, Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus agreed to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The international acceptance of Ukraine as an Independent Country went widespread and developed its diplomatic service.
The History:
At the time of independence in 1991, the situation in Ukraine was very volatile because:
- Approximately 750,000 USSR soldiers were within Ukraine’s borders.
- About 5,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, 175 long range missiles and huge quantity of small arms and conventional ammunition were piled up in Ukraine as part of USSR
- Immediately after the independence, the Ukrainian government quickly brought these forces under its command.
Military personnel on Ukrainian soil were compelled to take an oath of allegiance to the new Ukrainian state in 1992; in case they refused to do so, they were given funds to leave the country, which subsequently reduced the size of the military
After the Chernobyl Disaster, the Ukrainian concerns about holding a huge cache of nuclear warheads ran high and started thinking about its disarmament. However, Ukraine, the then considered third-largest nuclear power, had not been aware of the size of the nuclear arsenal held by them, nor were they aware of the problems and huge costs involved with nuclear disarmament. In early 1992, half of the warheads were transferred to Russia as per the agreement. But as an afterthought, questions rose up about the logic behind handing over the warheads to one of the potential adversaries, that too without any guarantee of security or financial compensation. By that time, Russia was already claiming a part of the Ukrainian territory, a peninsula, Crimea. The Change in standby Ukraine has created major chaos in the west, particularly the United States. However, Russia, with the help of the United States decommissioned the Soviet-era nukes and thereafter, Ukraine becomes a signatory to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons. The world witnessed massive demilitarisation by Ukraine for the destruction of more than one million small arms, 3 million anti-personnel mines, 100 thousand tons of ammunition and more than 1000 surface to air missiles. Ukraine also disowned the proposal for a combined force under the unified command of CIS, common citizenship, the status of Crimea, control of the Black Sea Fleet and the port city of Sevastopol.
Another issue related to the conflict is that in 1992 Ukraine had claimed the entire naval fleet of the USSR which stunned the Russian side. Russians declared that the fleet always had been and would remain with Russia. By June 1992, both the countries had agreed for joint operation of the fleet for three years and subsequent division of the assets. Further Ukraine consented Russia to acquire the majority of the shares of the fleets against the heavy debt owed to Russia. However, a final agreement was reached in 1997 and the Sevastopol Port facilities were leased to Russia for 20 years.
The extreme concern of the US after the independence of Ukraine was about the holding of the huge cache of nukes by it and the ties began to develop only after the resolution of the disarmament. Thereafter, Ukraine became a major recipient of US assistance. In 1994, Ukraine has joined the Partnership for Peace Programme under NATO and subsequently, on 9th November 1995, Ukraine joined the Council of Europe. These developments were definitely not in favour of Russian interests.
Annexation of Crimea:
Crimea was an integral part of Ukraine. However, Russia continued to put all types of pressure on Ukraine to enforce a complete hold on Crimea. Russia placed heavy economic pressure on Ukraine by increasing the natural gas price by almost 80 per cent. As Russian pressure was mounting, a group of armed masked men surrounded vital places in the peninsula and occupied the Crimean Parliament building. These protesters were using Russian made weapons without any identification and raised a Russian flag in the Parliament building. Voice and data links between Crimea and Ukraine were severed, while Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized the event as an effort to protect Russian citizens and military assets in Crimea.
In March 2014, the Crimean parliament voted for separation from Ukraine and to join the Russian Federation, with a public referendum, reportedly supported by Russia. This move by Crimea was condemned by most of the Western Countries, but hailed by Russia, considering the overwhelming 97 per cent support to the referendum to join the Russian federation. Meanwhile, Ukraine declared that Crimea is an integral of Ukraine and cited widespread irregularities in the voting process. The United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against a number of Russian officials and the Crimean Parliament members. On March 18, President Putin signed a treaty incorporating Crimea into the Russian Federation. Further, Russian troops occupied the Ukrainian Naval headquarters in Sevastopol and other bases across the peninsula. After the ratification of the annexation treaty by the Russian Parliament, Putin signed a law formally integrating Crimea into Russia.
Where Are We Headed To?
In October 2021, Russia began moving the troops and military equipment consisting of armoured vehicles, heavy weaponry and missiles along with the border with Ukraine and ignited the fear of a potential invasion. Within two months’ time, Russia puts more than one hundred thousand troops across the border, reportedly with a plan to invade Ukraine in early 2022. In mid-December 2021, Russia placed demands to the West saying: Ukraine should be barred from joining NATO; NATO should end military activity in Eastern Europe by pulling troops out of Poland and the Baltic Republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; and the alliance should not deploy missiles in countries near or bordering Russia. However, the United States and allies rejected Russian demands and reprimanded with the consequences if Ukraine is invaded and warned retaliation. The development further deteriorated US-Russia relations complicating the cooperation elsewhere, including issues on terrorism, arms control and a political solution for Syria.
Reportedly, Russia has started supply of blood near Ukraine’s borders for use in the event of any conflict which ignited US concerns further that it could be a signal for invasion in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Amnesty International has warned that the conflict will lead to devastating consequences for human rights in the region; threatening civilian lives, their livelihoods and infrastructures, besides the acute shortage of food and massive migration. Rising prices for basic foods and goods, including medical supplies, are affecting people’s right to healthcare and an adequate standard of living in Ukraine. However, 30 members of NATO have agreed to come to each other’s aid in the event of an armed attack.
The situation in Ukraine is very volatile and can spark an invasion by Russia at any time to keep their interest in the massive stockpile of Armaments including nukes and naval assets in Ukraine. World leaders are trying to avoid such conflict through dialogues. However, ramped up supplies of Arms and Ammunition by the US and its allies to Ukraine and the rigid stand taken up by them are showing no consensus.
