Earth’s population is projected to peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion people, before slightly decreasing to a much lower level than anticipated a decade ago, according to a new report from the United Nations.
Currently at 8.2 billion, the global population will rise to its maximum over the next 60 years and then dip to 10.2 billion by the century’s end, as detailed in the “World Population Prospects 2024” report released on Thursday.
The report indicates that the projected population in 2100 will be six percent lower, or 700 million fewer, than estimates made in June 2013.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. The unexpected population peak is attributed to several factors, including lower fertility rates in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China.
This earlier and lower population peak is seen as a hopeful sign in the fight against global warming. Fewer people could mean less aggregate consumption, thereby reducing pressure on the environment. However, Li Junhua cautioned that slower population growth alone will not eliminate the need to reduce the environmental impact of individual activities.
More than a quarter of the world’s population, about 28 percent, now lives in one of 63 countries or areas where the population has already peaked. This group includes China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. Nearly 50 other countries, such as Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, are expected to reach their population peaks in the next 30 years.
Conversely, population growth will continue in over 120 countries beyond 2054, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, according to the UN.
Global life expectancy, which had been interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, is on the rise again, averaging 73.3 years in 2024 and expected to reach 77.4 years by 2054.
The report predicts that the world’s population will increasingly age. By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 or older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing those under 18 for the first time.
