Compared to the rapid change of atmospheric climate, the ever-changing ocean shows strong resilience, or “memory,” meaning that tomorrow’s ocean temperatures may look as high as they are today, with only a slight change. As a result, sea memory is often used to predict sea conditions.Decreased ocean memory is found as a coherent response to all climate models in man-made warming. As greenhouse gases continue to rise, such memory loss will become increasingly evident.
“We found this phenomenon by examining the similarity of sea water temperature from one year to the next as a simple ocean memory memory,” said Hui Shi, lead author and researcher at Farallon Institute in Petaluma, California. “It’s almost like the ocean is developing amnesia.”
The memory of the sea is found to be related to the thickness of the upper layer of the sea, known as the mixed layer. the mixed layer over many oceans will sink to the bottom due to continuous anthropogenic warming, leading to a decline in sea memory.
“Other processes, such as changes in ocean currents and changes in trade between the oceans and oceans, also contribute to the change of ocean memory, but the depth of the mixed layer and depth of memory occurring in all regions of the world, and this makes it an important factor to consider. Robert Jnglin Wills, a research scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle, Washington, and co-author of the study.
With a decrease in sea memory, a smaller mixed layer is obtained and increases the random variability of sea temperature. As a result, although the ocean will not change much from one year to the next, the proportion of useful forecasts is greatly reduced.
“Decreased ocean memory and increased random fluctuations suggest systemic changes and new challenges in predicting warming,” said Fei-FeiJin, professor of air science at the University of Hawai’i at the Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science as well. Technology, and co-author of the study.
“Decreased memory means that it is still too early to make predictions. This may affect our ability to predict and prepare for changes in the oceans, including ocean temperatures, which are known to cause sudden and noticeable changes in the ocean environment around the world,” he said. Michael Jacox, research scientist at NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Monterey, California, and co-author of the study.
In fishery management, the biological parameters used in the stock test are estimated by considering the stable area represented by the latter period. Reducing marine memory may make that measurement inaccurate and call for new ecosystem-based fisheries management practices to incorporate real-time marine monitoring and other similar efforts. Decreased marine memory may also contribute to the abundance of biological resources. Depending on the species becoming accustomed to enduring or changing environmental conditions, future changes in their populations may be better predicted and predicted by memory loss at sea.
In addition to predicting oceans, predicting global-based impacts on temperature, rainfall and extreme events may affect marine memory loss due to their reliance on oceanic water temperature as a source of forecasting. As the memory of the ocean continues to dwindle, researchers will likely be challenged to look for more predictable forecasts.
Using future projections from the latest generation of Earth System Models, a recent study found that most of the world’s oceans are slowly losing their annual memory under global warming. Decreased ocean memory and increased volatility fluctuations suggest systemic changes and new challenges in predicting warming, “said Fei-FeiJin, a professor of space science.
Source Journal Reference:Hui Shi, Fei-FeiJin, Robert C. J. Wills, Michael G. Jacox, Dillon J. Amaya, Bryan A. Black, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Steven J. Bograd, Marisol GarcÃa-Reyes, William J. Sydeman. Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century. Science Advances, 2022; 8 (18) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm3468
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