Using a tool developed by NITI Aayog and TIFAC, eight scenarios were designed to analyze the future inflow of two electric wheels into the country. In a promising context, the report predicts 100% inflow of two electric wheels from the Indian market in FY 2026–27. In another scenario, driven by technology and when current benefits are withdrawn by 2024, the report predicts 72% inflation by 2031.
At the launch of the report, NITI Aayog chief executive Amitabh Kant said, “This report provides a much-needed tool for industry, researchers, academics and policy makers to analyze and respond to a wide range of situations. It can be easily replicated in other parts of the world, such as the four wheels, without much suffering. ”
Eight scenarios are considered:
Challenging Distribution, Performance Continued, Low Battery Cost, Driven Technology , Incentive Driven, Battery Cost Is a Challenge, Same Performance.
Future conditions are built on the basis of three major factors that influence the market inflow of two electric wheels:
- demand compensation
- (ii) battery cost
- (iii) vehicle performance in terms of both width and strength.
Four broad range levels have also been identified in eight cases, in terms of the production capacity of the installed vehicles and the available charging infrastructure: (i) full limit (where both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constrained) (ii) production constraint (where only car production is a barrier) (iii) charge limit (where only charging infrastructure is a barrier) (iv) no limit.
In the case of ‘Technology Driven’, if the R&D system is able to improve the range and power of two electric wheels by 5% annually between FY 2023–24 and 2025–26, and by 10% in FY 2026–2027, then The inflow of two-wheeled electric power can reach up to about 72% by FY 2031–32 — even if there is no extension of the required benefits. Sales of two electric wheels may exceed 220 lakh units by FY 2028–29 under ‘Same Performance’ and ‘Battery Cost’ conditions. It can reach up to 180 lakh units under the condition of ‘technical operation’. Under ‘Incentive Drive’ conditions, sales are expected to reach 55 lakh units only by FY 2031.
If there is a sufficient capacity for two electric wheels and charging infrastructure, then the sale (which eventually reaches approximately 250 lakh units) at some point may even exceed production under ‘Optimistic’, ‘Same Performance’ and ‘Battery Cost’ conditions. This report provides important information about the required infrastructure, production capacity, policies, and priorities for technological development in the area. Situations can be used by government agencies, industry, and educational / R&D institutions to analyze policy-based policies, market conditions and strategies.
