The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the onset of the Kerala southwest monsoon in mainland India for May 31, a day ahead of the usual schedule. This announcement holds significant implications for the country’s agricultural sector, food inflation, and rural economy.
The forecast suggests that this year’s monsoon is likely to be “above normal” at 106% of the long-period average (LPA). The monsoon’s arrival is crucial for sustaining nearly 70% of the country’s rainfall between June and September. IMD’s operational forecasts have been historically accurate, with last year being an exception.
Experts attribute this year’s forecast to the possibility of the La Nina phenomenon, which typically leads to above-average monsoon rains in India. With 51% of India’s farmed area and 47% of its population dependent on agriculture, a bountiful monsoon is vital for economic stability.
IMD’s prediction also anticipates the monsoon’s advancement into the south Andaman Sea and parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal by May 19. Relief from the scorching summer heat is expected as the monsoon progresses northward, covering the entire country by around July 15. IMD will issue updated forecasts by the end of May, providing probabilistic forecasts for seasonal rainfall across different regions of India.
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